I think it’s pretty much even. If you want any reasons I can go into them but you guys said a lot of words so that’s probably fine.
1 Like
I mean, I think more words are good! There definitely feels like there’s a bunch of different interesting dynamics at play in the MU.
Well my take is: Oni’s tools don’t really ever lose to anyone else’s tools. They’re too good. The only thing he loses to is consistent and powerful dodges. Gwen’s dodges just aren’t nearly powerful enough. Unless you save up for Dreadlands Portal (which will take you 3-4 turns at fastest each time) you’ll have to settle for approximately 12-damage punishes. Nobody can beat Oni in neutral with consistent enough punishes to match him other than maybe Zane. What’s worse is that in this matchup unlike any other matchup Oni never actually has to throw Gwen because she will die eventually anyway, so unless he is at a huge life deficit he can just sit on his superior tools, superior dodges, and superior card efficient punish game.
Now that I’ve talked about it I don’t think it’s even after all. Oni wins this matchup. Thanks for making me use my words, Carpe.
4 Likes
When you put it that way, it’s kind of like the anti-Argagarg matchup.
The funny thing is, the model agrees with you (90% chance it’s between 5-5 and 7.5-2.5). This all came up because I played the Oni end against @flagrantangles Gwen, and lost it pretty solidly. Which I’m pretty sure is just a resounding indictment of my skills at Oni/arbitrary Yomi characters. 
3 Likes
Hmmmm, it never feels that cumbersome from the Gwen side to me, but I’ve only played the matchup a handful of times.
In that case, what’s Onimaru vs Setsuki like? I assume it’s more even because Setsuki has better dodge punishes at least some of the time?
1 Like
Haven’t played it tons, but yeah basically. Speed of the Fox changes a lot by giving her reloads and high damage dodges at the same time.
And like I mentioned, Q actually has respectable burst. I often consider jokering Q starters.
Where are these Oni players who never get hit by J starter all hanging out?
4 Likes
Honestly Setsuki not being on a clock is a huge game changer. Plus she almost never has to block while Gwen has to block sometimes. She can dodge endlessly and not have to worry about constantly dying. Plus her big combo starter naturally beats Oni’s aces and Q (without Final Authority). So I’d say Oni-Setsuki is probably even or slightly Setsuki favor.
2 Likes
I think it’s probably advantage for Oni, but J starter can be a legit threat in the MU. And yeah, Gwen has to dodge more than Gwen players might tend to, but she builds to AAA pretty well if she plays a slower game.
3 Likes
J starter can be a legit threat, which is why I don’t see Oni getting hit by it very regularly. Unless the Gwen player is tight on her reads she’ll land it less than 25% of the time she plays it, since Oni barely ever has to throw I would think the only occasions that he will play a card that loses to it is on General’s Armor attempts and maybe the odd raw 10 attack.
2 Likes
I guess. We both agree it’s Oni advantaged, so this is just quibbling on my part.
If the Oni player is doing almost nothing besides blodge and Q/FA, Gwen has fairly safe answers to that, but it requires her to play a slower gameplan than she may be used to. If Oni is doing blodge/QFA, then Gwen doesn’t need anything in her deck except dodges and throws/AAA.
2 Likes
I mean that’s pretty much how every character plays against Onimaru in a nutshell. Some characters are just better at it than others though hence his matchup spread.
3 Likes
@flagrantangles is making a point for the Persephone vs Troq matchup here, and since I have an upcoming match in this specific matchup, I’d love to hear some thoughts surrounding it.
Persephones best matchup is Rook. And comparing Rook and Troq in this specific matchup, what does Troq have that Rook does not?
- Less life
- Less blocks
- Dodges
- Q and J
- More damage from Throws
But … is that enough to tip the favor in Troq’s favor? I feel like it should be as easy to get a hard lock on Troq as Rook. Rook has both Q and J which beat raw A as much as Troq’s J and Q - but Rook can combo from his J in contrast to Troq.
The only real thing I can think of is that Troq might do the 200 IQ play of blocking with an odd block and an even block to “store” them in case a hard lock is nigh, and bust out AAA from KD to get them into his hand, and have a 50/50 chance to get out of the hard lock, should it happen. (Or in general, just have an actual block for the recurring AA from Persephone)
EDIT: Tho, looking at the historical matchup chart, I see the matchup numbers are 5-5 against Rook and 4.3-5.7 against Troq. (And the best matchup is against Grave, Gloria and Geiger)
1 Like
Troq has better reach off successful normal throws and can dodge into BU. Rook’s better max damage off J just doesn’t compensate for that.
edit: Rook’s Q also loses to Persephone 2, which is rough when it happens. But yeah, one of Rook’s biggest issues is his weakness to Gold Bursts in the late game. Dodges are simply better than not having dodges.
3 Likes
Interesting. My data suggests that Pers’s best matchup is against Grave (4.5-5.5 at the low end, 7-3 at the high end, 5.5-4.5 in aggregate), and that both Rook and Troq are slightly against Pers (3.5-6.5 low, 5.5-4.5 high, 4.5 aggregate for Rook, 3.5-6.5, 6-4, 5-5 for Troq). I wonder if that’s a failing in my analysis?
@Fluffiness, what’s your take on those 3 matchups? Are my numbers totally bogus?
1 Like
imo troq fares much better cuz much more dmg efficient than rook. He can do 20 off a throw, rook can only do 10, his dodges have nasty follow up, while rook special blocks are meh most of the times and can be countered (unless 5 vs AA rook will usually yield, 10 hp are not worth a measly effect). Troq war stomp can punish a low hand perse, something that rook can’t.
1 Like
just noticed the match you are talking about is vs me lol
1 Like
Yes, you were not supposed to see that 
Maybe I base myself on some of the older posts on the old forums, but I feel like ntillerman and a few others were talking about how that matchup was “terrible” for Rook. And they may be basing their numbers on less real matchup numbers and more of theory somehow. And maybe I am discounting the dodges too much, because unless there is AA in Troq’s hand, or AAA, the most he can do is 10 (unless he does a K) from a dodge. Which is on the lower end of what you usually expect from dodges.
Better damage from throws is 100% a thing, but with a character that has so few blocks - and don’t even retain the blocks if you win combat with them - aren’t you a lot more exposed to hard locks? I guess the lack of dodges with Rook makes him basically KD if you take away all Rooks blocks and spam AA - but for that to happen with Troq, you would also have to get rid of all the dodges for that to happen in neutral.
hmm, i have spectated many troq vs perse games @Caralad has a very solid win rate in the MU and not only him. Consider that she has only 75 hp. 3 throws and a K and she is dead. Also yes, recurring AA is indeed bad, but vs defence mastery is hard to build a hand and she loses the throw game, imo. Edit also her soft counter is not good vs Ks.
1 Like