[spoiler]Morningstar Flagbearer, Aged Sensei, Fox Primus, Snapback, Saviour Monk/spoiler]
Discard
Safe Attacking, Sensei’s Advice, Grappling Hook
Think
I have no idea what that codex is meant to do. Oh well, let’s just play white pressure. No sensei turn 1 and no grappling hook turn 2 means this is a pretty bad opening hand for white. But I’m still playing white, so it’s a good hand.
Rook with Wither on Grave is sound play to me. Smoker can’t benefit from Sensei’s advice so he doesn’t have a route to kill. Will need to keep Snapback in mind as the game progresses
Yeah, now that I look at it that was a pretty silly patrol. I should’ve kept smoker backline and put grave in lookout. No-one is forcing a kill on grave turn 1, and no-one is casting wither to return smoker to my hand. Oh well, I’ll get sparring partner to potentially return grave to strength (if he doesn’t die first).
I don’t see anything to completely exclude Bloom Rook, kill Monk then Tenderfoot in SQL while I get to Tech I on time. Any other line feels pretty passive vs his growing board.
Yes, in this line he can kill Rook with Reversal + Midband Grave + Sensei buff, but that leaves Grave on 1HP and dead to a second Wither. He might risk it given the low value of maintaining a -1/-1 hero though. That would leave my empty board facing 2x units and a midband (albeit weak) Grave.
Safe Attacking + Rambasas would be my other plausible line for him, even if it does drop his hand size again. Then his 1 drops + Grave can kill Tenderfoot, also leaving Grave on 1HP but with 2x 3/2s in patrol and ready to swing next turn. I’d have to trade in Rook or midband him, both of which in kind of reluctant to do unless I have a strong hero shift play to compensate for the loss of value.
So that’s two pretty plausible options for him that preserve his 1 drops and a 1HP Grave, just with either no Rook and Grave at midband or with Rook alive but facing down 4x units with Safe Attacking and potentially Snapback in the wings.
I don’t think any of that feels like I should be teching in Birds Nest. I also don’t think I can risk a Tech rush. So let’s go with Sickness and Crypt Crawler. The former really ups my chance of a Grave kill and the latter gives me a 3/3 to patrol with. That extra HP will force much better trades from SQL or at least extra cards to use Grappling Hook. I think Tiny Basilisk is weak to cheap unit spam, especially with Sensei’s advice potentially in the wings.
Hmm, nice and easy kill for me here. I am getting dangerously low on cards, so I’ll just aim to tech up next turn. Maybe maxband setsuki will come save me.
I’ll grab discord for now as that will be useful against everything they want to do at tech 1, and hold off on my tech 2 decision until next turn. Probably finesse, but could be discipline. Or maybe even glorious ninja…?
Ahh yes Fencers, well let’s kill off his board without giving cards as a start. Next I need to patrol something in SQL with Orpal behind in Technician. 9g next turn is massive with 4/5 cards being 2g so let’s go with Messenger for economy reasons. I think I’m fine if he spends cards and stays low hand here or spends sword killing Orpal. I have a gut feeling that MM is pretty likely here, given the low hand and patrolling Technician. It does give him a well timed spy on my low hand but I don’t feel particularly vulnerable to that knowledge right now.
I could kill orpal but it would require workering safe attacking or skipping tech 2, and neither of those are things I want to do.
I’m really not sure what tech 2 plan they’re going for, but I would say disease most likely with balance second. I tossed up between discipline or finesse, but with access to plauge spitters
and crypt crawlers, it’d be hard to get value out of lightning dragons, so I opted for finesse with sparring partner support. I’ll probably end up maxing sets to get the card draw necessary too, since they don’t have a tonne of ways to kill heroes. I guess midori maxband, but they know I can slap down lizards.
Anyway, teching in regular big finesse threats and teching up first is pretty great. I’m still annoyed at myself for the turn 1 blunder, but I’m recovering it. The sickness play here is not a big deal, since it keeps them low on cards. They either spend a lot of resources killing sparring partner here, or I get big value from it.
I’m pretty confident he teched one Martial Mastery or Reversal, with the Spartner and 2x Fencers, given his willingness to allow Technician draw into a reshuffle earlier.
With no Martial Mastery it’s a 30% chance of any single card, or 53% chance of a Fencer. If I’ve done my maths right, 1xMM in deck changes those stats to a 63% chance of a Fencer and a 37% chance of any other single card.
Unfortunately with that board and the threat of Fencer(s) I don’t have a good way to Tech up and stop a Tech break here. I also can’t just invest into Orpal to shore up, given that Snapback is all but guaranteed to still be in his deck. With his board and big gold reserves, his 53-63% chance of a Fencer would mean a tech break. I think I’m essentially compelled to play Brother in Technician and Orpal in elite and hope he misses a draw here with the low hand. At least that way I have the gold for a HH, so I can still pivot to my other heroes if he gets the tech break.
Moment’s Peace seems absolutely essential so let’s grab both now for the reshuffle
Hmm, not a bad turn at all. Getting huge value out of sparring partner here. I’m in a fantastic position now after that early blunder, and they still have no haste (barring mimic, but I’m not planning on providing it just yet!)
I did bottom deck my fencers, but that is of little consequence. I can easily go to tech 3 next turn if I wish, or just wait and do it the turn after. Most likely I will want to lay down grounded guide and spar with him.
Well my prediction of Martial Mastery is out the window now. Discord was a surprise but Bryce is prone to moves out for left-field.
Obviously I 100% am playing Basilisk in SQL and then Rook in Technician or Elite. The question is do I also play Midori, knowing that I have Moment’s Peace in deck, or do I instead Wither Grave or patrol Crawler so I can keep Midori in reserve.
Grounded Guide (5g) feels pretty face up and gives him 5 attack amongst his units in play, so he’s still lacking one more to kill off the Basilisk. If he managed both Guide and Fencer he will hit his hand size down but he can trade a boosted Fencer and Smoker to clear the Basilisk, leaving Spartner, Grave and boosted River vs my patrol. Buffed maxband River can kill Rook, leaving Grave and a 3 attack Spartner vs my remaining patrol. If that patrol is Midori in Elite I feel pretty ok about it as he has to trade in his buff engine or Grave to kill him, unless he buffs Grave and then attacks him, but either way he has no way to break my Tech II.
My other thought is Rook in Elite and Crawler in Technician but River can sideline a Tech I so I’ve got no real guarantee of Technician draw. I guess the same is true of Heroes’ via Snapback. Yeah on second thoughts I don’t like the Crawler as a patrolling option. I think I’ll just worker it as I really want to keep both Wither for runes and Messenger for a way to give Mimics Haste.
Well, potent basilisk is the obvious choice. I think it’s still correct to go aggressive here, against the lack of haste. Pressing my advantage means less opportunity for counter-attack. They will likely build tech 3, but I think I can punish that with my next hand. I’m pretty sure this patrol keeps both units safe this turn as well, which is a boon.
The Tenderfoot slows my cycle but it seems really important in stopping him getting through to my Tech buildings. Assuming I can keep him out I should be able to Moment’s Peace and Tech up and go for TRexes for the win. Fingers crossed it works out!
Not feeling super great about this now, if he’s gone for Starlets I might just not be able to maintain Tech III at all, but we’re committed to the plan nonetheless. Bloom on Midori is an attempt to avoid any heroes adding to my building fears. Let’s just hope I draw alright and he doesn’t have Snapback in hand.