Ok, so I checked my math, and it was wrong, as far as I can tell. Details below, but the counter meta is:
Blind pick: Grave, always Grave
Counter pick:
- Geiger -> Grave
- Troq -> Geiger
- Zane -> Troq
- whatever else you want, because in theory, on one else gets played.
The net result of that selection (against my strict meta above), is an overall expected win rate of 5.2, based on the historical MU chart ratings. Not huge, but also not negative, which makes me think thereâs room for overall shifts in the meta.
The Maths
This is calculated for a best-of-3 set, but the effects are more pronounced with longer sets.
EV(C1, C2, W1, W2)
means "the probability that player 1 will win the set (given that they need W1
wins vs player 2âs W2
wins required), given that player 1 is playing C1
this match, and player 2 is playing C2
"
EV(Troq,Zane,1,1) = 0.650 = 0.650 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Geiger,0,1)) + 0.350 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,0))
EV(Grave,Zane,1,2) = 0.804 = 0.440 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,0,2)) + 0.560 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,1))
EV(Grave,Zane,1,1) = 0.440 = 0.440 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,0,1)) + 0.560 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,0))
EV(Grave,Geiger,2,1) = 0.251 = 0.570 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,1)) + 0.430 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Geiger,2,0))
EV(Grave,Geiger,2,2) = 0.566 = 0.570 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,2)) + 0.430 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Geiger,2,1))
EV(Geiger,Zane,1,1) = 0.390 = 0.390 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Zane,0,1)) + 0.610 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,0))
EV(Geiger,Troq,2,1) = 0.238 = 0.610 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Zane,1,1)) + 0.390 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Troq,2,0))
EV(Grave,Troq,2,2) = 0.498 = 0.460 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,2)) + 0.540 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Troq,2,1))
EV(Troq,Geiger,1,1) = 0.390 = 0.390 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Geiger,0,1)) + 0.610 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Geiger,1,0))
EV(Troq,Zane,2,1) = 0.254 = 0.650 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Geiger,1,1)) + 0.350 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,2,0))
EV(Grave,Zane,2,2) = 0.496 = 0.440 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,2)) + 0.560 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,2,1))
I think whatâs going on is that Grave is favored enough over Geiger that it makes up for his slightly unfavorable MUs against Troq and Zane, and that once he starts down that path, the counterpicks arenât enough to make up the difference.
More analysis (like, what, if anything, beats both of those, or how can the current meta adjust to beat the counter-meta) will be forthcoming.