Ok, so I checked my math, and it was wrong, as far as I can tell. Details below, but the counter meta is:

Blind pick: Grave, always Grave

Counter pick:

- Geiger -> Grave
- Troq -> Geiger
- Zane -> Troq
- whatever else you want, because in theory, on one else gets played.

The net result of that selection (against my strict meta above), is an overall expected win rate of 5.2, based on the historical MU chart ratings. Not huge, but also not negative, which makes me think thereâs room for overall shifts in the meta.

##
The Maths

This is calculated for a best-of-3 set, but the effects are more pronounced with longer sets.

`EV(C1, C2, W1, W2)`

means "the probability that player 1 will win the set (given that they need `W1`

wins vs player 2âs `W2`

wins required), given that player 1 is playing `C1`

this match, and player 2 is playing `C2`

"

```
EV(Troq,Zane,1,1) = 0.650 = 0.650 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Geiger,0,1)) + 0.350 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,0))
EV(Grave,Zane,1,2) = 0.804 = 0.440 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,0,2)) + 0.560 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,1))
EV(Grave,Zane,1,1) = 0.440 = 0.440 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,0,1)) + 0.560 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,0))
EV(Grave,Geiger,2,1) = 0.251 = 0.570 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,1)) + 0.430 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Geiger,2,0))
EV(Grave,Geiger,2,2) = 0.566 = 0.570 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,2)) + 0.430 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Geiger,2,1))
EV(Geiger,Zane,1,1) = 0.390 = 0.390 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Zane,0,1)) + 0.610 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,1,0))
EV(Geiger,Troq,2,1) = 0.238 = 0.610 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Zane,1,1)) + 0.390 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Troq,2,0))
EV(Grave,Troq,2,2) = 0.498 = 0.460 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,2)) + 0.540 * sum(1.0 * EV(Geiger,Troq,2,1))
EV(Troq,Geiger,1,1) = 0.390 = 0.390 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Geiger,0,1)) + 0.610 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Geiger,1,0))
EV(Troq,Zane,2,1) = 0.254 = 0.650 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Geiger,1,1)) + 0.350 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,2,0))
EV(Grave,Zane,2,2) = 0.496 = 0.440 * sum(1.0 * EV(Grave,Zane,1,2)) + 0.560 * sum(1.0 * EV(Troq,Zane,2,1))
```

I *think* whatâs going on is that Grave is favored enough over Geiger that it makes up for his slightly unfavorable MUs against Troq and Zane, and that once he starts down that path, the counterpicks arenât enough to make up the difference.

More analysis (like, what, if anything, beats both of those, or how can the current meta adjust to beat the counter-meta) will be forthcoming.