I’ve been mulling this one over for a long time now, so here’s a lot:
I’ve seen both his initial tech cards because he played them on the board this turn. He’s only gotten 2 more since. One of them has to be a tech 2 card, or else him building the tech 2 building feels like a wild call. I’ve never played against the truth tech 2 before, but my best guess is that one of the tech cards was Macciatus, because otherwise this entire spec looks lacking into my girls Argagarg and River (just as that spectral flagbearer does this turn).
But I also can’t imagine he’s just inserting double tech 2 cards? He has to know (particularly with the written acknowledgement he’s in danger) that won’t stave off a stampede kill. I can think of 2 other cards he might have chosen to tech which actually protect him from what I’m doing. Free speech needs to hit alongside units of real size though, and he’d have no way to make that happen if his 4 techs are cadet, flagbearer, Macciatus, and free speech. That said, it will absolutely wipe the floor with me in ~2 turns or something if I’m not on the brink of winning already. So the only other card that could make it happen is a 1-of judgment day? Which is a real problem. If I clean his board, scavenger bonus puts him at the requisite 10 gold to summon Bigby, max, and cast it. I think I can win from that position as long as I put him to low life beforehand, but if he’s let to do that this very turn it’ll be exactly 1 turn too soon for me; I have to get a (potentially even non-lethal) stampede off first.
The saving grace is that he only redrew 2 cards from a 6-card deck. So he’s 2/3rds not to be holding it (I can write off lawful search since he won’t have the 1 gold to invest drawing into it). If I kill the technician, that chance goes down to 50-50. That by itself wouldn’t be the worst reduction in odds for me, except that he has known access to a 2nd card that can hold this up: reputable newsman. And that one can be lawful searched into if he must, making the technician draw significantly more impactful for it. This game is on a knife’s edge here, with the next 1-2 turns being the critical deciders, so with the huge spike in odds for him to get at least one of those I don’t think I can afford to allow the draw. As a nice bonus, his hand is small(ish) already and he doesn’t have a great way to recoup the card loss, so denying the draw is probably worth 1 less card for the next few turns even if I’m wrong about all of this. There is an inherant cost of 1 base damage to not swinging in here, but that seems acceptable. But if I’m wrong in these predictions, I’m not sure what either of us does matters and I think I win anyway, so I’m going to give my respect to his possible newsman/judgment/free speech counter-lines.
If I have to let him keep the 1/1 then I don’t need to play the spirit of the panda; I can’t attack with a 2nd creature anyway (well I could, but it’s still way more expensive than merely activating Argagarg for a kill). So I just need to max on bodies and patrol to protect the important ones. Aven → hero → manufactured truth commits 5 gold for turn, removes a blocker, and gives Argagarg another over-valued activation, so even though I lose pandafoot it could definitely be a lot worse for me than that; I think that’s acceptable. There’s still the possibility of an arrest though, so I may need multiple patrollers to protect pandafoot. Next turn if he addresses nothing and I draw stampede, I’ll have 28 damage, which should put him pretty easily in range to win no matter what the blockers are. If he addresses 1, I think the worst he can do is copy something onto traffic director and run it into pandafoot (I’m calling it right now; there’s no way he teched the 5/5 that simply dies to an Argagarg activation); he can’t kill Argagarg. That removes 6 of the damage. If I put in 2 patrollers of wisp and timely messenger, the worst that happens is arresting 1 and killing the other, which equates to 7. That’s a pretty big commitment from him to do it, but I still think there’s a better option? Despite Calamandra having 2 teched spells, she is nonetheless immune to arrest and big enough that he’d need to play something with 4 power to copy it onto traffic director and kill her. I did have the soul read he’d lead with Macciatus, who isn’t big enough? He’d need to be playing the spectral roc or tiger, both of which give Argagarg tremendous value. And at least Calamandra dying doesn’t block stampede, the actually-important interaction. Heck, I think it’s a lot more likely she’d be boot camped out of the way to kill a bigger unit behind her, but even that seems crazy as one of his 2 techs last turn, so I think this is my hedge.
Also (after locking in the turn) thank goodness I drew the stampede. I was only 50-50ish to get stampede, and I’m pretty sure I needed that or ferns here to push enough damage for a win. Stampede is obviously the better of the two.