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[Tournament] Lum's Long Odds - Ongoing!


#122

I hadn’t planned to. Let’s say we have player A and player B. Player A wins all their sets 5-0 but gets very low points for them. Player B gets very high points each set, but doesn’t win all their individual games. Player B ends up winning the whole tournament.

In the spreadsheet, player A will have a 100% match and set win percentage for the tournament (and toward their lifetime stats). Player B will have a 100% set win percentage, but a lower match win percentage for the tournament and overall stats. They’re both still net positive, just one approach is better overall for winning 1st place, if you can manage it.

Also consider, in the case where players manage to get massive points one round, that’s going to improve their odds of being matched against other high point earners, due to the nature of the Swiss format. Getting 15 pts for a 5-0 is low for the number of wins, but it also means you denied your opponent any points at all, which counts for something as well.


#123

I don’t really follow how B would have a 100% set win for the tournament when you’re logging each set of 5 games individually as won or loss on points? I’m probably missing something here but my understanding would be that A would have 100% for both sets and games won but B would not for either measure.

Also I don’t really understand why this tournment wouldn’t be filterable as "non-ft3/ft4"as it literally isn’t a ft3/ft4 set that we play each round.

My comment about a “points based” filter was an unsubstantiated but hopeful conjecture so obviously that can freely be ignored. I just thought that since set wins mean absolutely nothing in terms of tournament placement it would be good to be able to filter them out of the player’s historic set wins %. I guess we’d lose the game win history as well tho and I think those are still very valid.


#124

Maybe I’m misunderstanding something. If they win all their sets on points, regardless of their match results in the individual sets, they would have 100% set wins.

So player A won all 6 of their sets 5-0. So they get 6 set wins and 30 match wins. Player B won all 6 of their sets on points, going 2-3 each time. So they get 6 set wins and 12 match wins, 18 match losses. Does that make sense? I’m talking purely about how the tournament will be recorded in the historical match-up chart for all these examples.

That’s a fair point. I’ll add the non-FT3/FT4 tag.

Even if the set wins don’t matter for tournament placement, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be recorded; you still won the set, after all. I could theoretically leave all the game win stats in but exclude any set win numbers, but that seems dumb to me. You won the set on points, so you should get the set win bump, imo.


#125

Standings After Week 2

  1. Niijima-San: 40.5
  2. MR: 36
  3. Ivan: 35
  4. Leontes: 34
  5. mastrblastr: 31
  6. Castanietzsche: 31
  7. neigutten: 30.5
  8. GutterOwl: 30
  9. Southpaw Hare: 29
  10. ArthurWynne: 28
  11. CKR: 27.5
  12. mysticjuicer: 23.5
  13. snoc: 22.5
  14. Fusxfaranto: 21
  15. vengefulpickle: 21
  16. thehug0naut: 20
  17. variable: 19
  18. FaceOnMars: 19
  19. flagrantangles: 17
  20. Hobusu: 13.5
  21. Hamvvar: 12
  22. MysticDeadman: 11.5
  23. Three Headed Monkey: 10
  24. UTRALAW: 5.5

Week 3 Matchups

Niijima-san/MR75
Ivan/Leontes
mastrblastr/Castanietzsche
neigutten/GutterOwl
SouthpawHare/ArthurWynne
CKR/mysticjuicer
snoc/Fusxfaranto
vengefulpickle/thehug0naut
variable/FaceOnMars
flagrantangles/Hobusu
Hamvvar/MysticDeadman
Three Headed Monkey/UTRALAW

[details=Week 1 Matchups]
mysticjuicer/Castanietzsche
mastrblastr/Three Headed Monkey
flagrantangles/ArthurWynne
Niijima-san/snoc
Leontes/UTRALAW
Fusxfaranto/MysticDeadman
CKR/neigutten
SouthpawHare/Hobusu
GutterOwl/variable
MR75/vengefulpickle
thehug0naut/FaceOnMars
Ivan/Hamvvar[/details]

[details=Week 2 Matchups]
Leontes/variable
FaceOnMars/Neiijima-san
ArthurWynne/mastrblastr
Ivan/Fusxfaranto
Southpaw Hare/mysticjuicer
neigutten/vengefulpickle
Hamvvar/CKR
MysticDeadman/MR75
Hobusu/Castanietzsche
snoc/flagrantangles
UTRALAW/GutterOwl
thehug0naut/ThreeHeadedMonkey[/details]

Week 3 Scores

  1. thehug0naut: 28
  2. MysticDeadman: 22
  3. UTRALAW: 20.5
  4. variable: 18
  5. mastrblastr: 17.5
  6. CKR: 17
  7. GutterOwl: 15.5
  8. Niijima-san: 15
  9. Leontes: 15
  10. snoc: 14
  11. SouthpawHare: 13.5
  12. flagrantangles; 13.5
  13. neigutten: 11
  14. Hobusu: 11
  15. ArthurWynne: 11
  16. Ivan: 10
  17. MR75: 9
  18. FaceOnMars: 8
  19. mysticjuicer: 7
  20. Castanietzsche: 6
  21. Fusxfaranto: 5
  22. ThreeHeadedMonkey: 3
  23. hamvvar: 0
  24. vengefulpickle: 0

Running Totals

  1. Niijima-San: 55.5
  2. Leontes: 49
  3. mastrblastr: 48.5
  4. thehug0naut: 48
  5. GutterOwl: 45.5
  6. MR: 45
  7. Ivan: 45
  8. CKR: 44.5
  9. Southpaw Hare: 42.5
  10. neigutten: 41.5
  11. ArthurWynne: 39
  12. Castanietzsche: 37
  13. variable: 37
  14. snoc: 36.5
  15. MysticDeadman: 33.5
  16. mysticjuicer: 30.5
  17. flagrantangles: 30.5
  18. FaceOnMars: 27
  19. Fusxfaranto: 26
  20. UTRALAW: 26
  21. Hobusu: 24.5
  22. vengefulpickle: 21
  23. Three Headed Monkey: 13
  24. Hamvvar: 12

#126

Out of curiosity, are you not entering our results into the sheet for this tourney? My last match against FaceOnMars got missed if you are.

EDIT: Thanks Juice.


#127

No, I am, I just missed it along with a bunch of other matches. Fixed!


#128

Sorry to be a pain, but I also noticed an error. In my match with Snoc I reported a loss in Jaina vs. Setsuki, but it was recorded as a win.

Thanks.


#129

No apologies needed! I appreciate the review. Fixed.


#130

ANALYSIS POST:

In this post I will take a running analysis of the characters in this tournament. I will update it as the weeks pass. At the end I will also include an analysis of significant matchups but not enough games have been played for that yet.

And thanks you to anyone who reported their matches with just the individual points played per game next to each game instead of running tallies or post game sum-ups; that makes this much easier!

Character Analysis

Points won/lost

:chibiargagarg: 10/5
Rating: 2
Not picked at all week 3.

:chibibbb: 26.5/9.5
Rating: 2.79
BBB with a big boost this week, throwing up only Ws.

:chibidegrey: 64.5/50.5
Rating: 1.28
DeGrey getting revenge for his underutilization in the normal 20xx by being the highest played member of the big crew in this tournament. Turns out that no matter what the matchup numbers are the constant threat of infinite dodge/unbeatable throw is still pretty good.

:chibigeiger: 5.5/10.5
Rating: .52
Not selected at all week 3.

:chibigloria: 48/44
Rating: 1.09
Gloria makes a large comeback in week three after a dismal placement after week 2. She is now breaking even.

:chibigrave: 39/31.5
Rating: 1.24
Grave manages to pull himself out of the dungeon here thanks almost entirely to a trifecta of wins against Persephone.

:chibigwen: 14.5/32.5
Rating: .45
Gwen takes an even bigger beating this week, putting her in the “solidly crap” pile. A volatile character who can pull out wins, she is almost certainly not consistent enough for this format.

:chibijaina: 73.5/48.5
Rating: 1.52
Jaina sitting on a pretty good mountain of points. When your numbers are as bad as hers it’s hard not to.

:chibilum: 33/34.5
Rating: .96
Lum clambers his way back up to even, as I predicted he would. Expect to see him to continue to rise.

:chibimenelker: 47/38.5
Rating: 1.22
Menelker usage exploded this week, and in the aftermath we see he has a net positive rating. It looks like he has a place in this tournament against Zane at the very least.

:chibimidori: 88/63.5
Rating: 1.39
Midori maintaining a good place in the mix.

:chibionimaru: 22/17
Rating: 1.29
Oni has the least points/game out of any character so far this tourney, showing that the favored character has a tendency of winning in his games.

:chibipersephone: 87.5/104
Rating: .84
Persephone is the most played character still, except week 3 saw a HUUUUUGE blow to her points, completely flipping her. I doubt this will stop her from showing up, but it was a grim week for the dominatrix.

:chibiquince: 52/55.5
Rating: .94
Quince just about even thus far, with a good amount of usage. Though I see that Quince vs. Valerie is listed as favorable in the points spread, so I wonder if we might see a vulnerable point there. (Same comment, same analysis, same prognosis).

:chibirook: 27.5/52
Rating: .53
Rook chilling in the dumpster with his loser friends.

:chibisetsuki: 23.5/92.5
Rating: .25
She appears vulnerable in some matches here, namely Midori and DeGrey. I expect her to end up near the bottom at the end of this tournament. Those were my comments from last week and they look even more prescient now. We still saw very strong usage from her though, indicating that nobody gives two shits about my analysis. Ignore at your own peril.

:chibitroq: 20/14
Rating: 1.43
Troq doing fine. Troq happy to rest while little people get played. Troq eat grass and watch.

:chibivalerie: 33.5/46
Rating: .73
Valerie Slipping into the negatives, which is probably where she will remain until the end.

:chibivendetta: 47.5/20
Rating: 2.375
Ven barely used this week, with another huge vulnerability rearing it’s ugly head (Menelker matchup is in no way 5/5). Expect continued low usage.

:chibizane: 30.5/23.5
Rating: 1.3
Zane gets a good bump in usage this week as people dial in more on their tournament strategies.

This is my analysis so far. Keep fighting!


#131

Ahh I see. Reading back over my posts I obviously misread you and thought you meant that B didn’t win every set but scored high points consistently so won the tournament overall. You didn’t mean that at all. My bad :joy:

Your other points also totally make sense, I can see what you mean about set wins and agree making a distinction between games and sets for this tournament would be silly.

Pleased you agree with me about the non-ft3/ft4 filter tho :smile: #NotAllWrong


#132

I sent out the start of the match convos, but I’m falling asleep on my keyboard, so feel free to start scheduling yourself if you get a chance before I send the rest out tomorrow morning.


#133

Given the lateness that the match scheduling convos are going out, and that us USians have a holiday at the end of the week:

Do you want an additional week to play this round?

  • Yes, please give me more time!
  • No, let’s keep the schedule on track

0 voters


#134

Selfish yes vote submitted because I’m busy this week even if I’m not American


#135

Voted no since match was already scheduled :slight_smile:.
But I’m not entirely against it, since I think that one week delay/pause will not hurt anyone!


#136

yeah turkey hell looms forebodingly over this week.


#137

European conquest day? Give it up for the EUBOIS of old! #badjokes


#138

Alright, we’ve now got 1/4 of the players voting yes, which is enough for me to call it. Everyone has an extension until Sunday, Dec 3.


#139

Lum’s Long Odds
Week 3

Mystic Deadman vs. @hamvvar

:chibigloria::psfist::pschip::chibimidori: :challenge::challenge: +7 :challenge::challenge:
:chibigloria::psfist::pschip::chibisetsuki: +5
:chibigloria::psfist::pschip::chibigrave: +4.5
:chibigloria::psfist::pschip::chibigrave: +4.5
:chibigloria::psfist::pschip::chibigrave: +4.5

Final Score

MD 22.5 - 0 hamvvar

…I guess I’m a Gloria main now.
Games 3-5 were Gloria-perfects, as the only damage I took was due to OD in all 3 games (I’m pretty sure, I’ll have to look back and make sure).

GGs dood, and good luck the rest of the way.

Also, big props to hamvvar and his patience. I had the wrong start time running through my head all day, and we ended up running late for him as we played this an hour later than originally scheduled.


#140

UTRALAW 4-1 ThreeHeadedMonkey

:menelker::psfist::pschip::valerie: 5-0
:menelker::psfist::pschip::valerie: 10-0
:menelker::psfist::pschip::zane: 17-0
:menelker::pschip::psfist::zane: 17-3
:troq::psfist::pschip::zane: 20.5-3

Final total Utralaw (20.5)- ThreeHeadedMonkey (3)

ggs mate was some fun games!


#141

While it’s in my head to say so, one huge plus of this tournament format is the guaranteed participation. There is a lot to be said for this factor imo. Personally, I find I’m really relaxed and probably play better knowing that I’m not under pressure to win or stop playing.

Though now that I’ve said that I’ve probably cursed myself to lose horribly the next few rounds :joy: