OTOH I’m also the player who insists on maining Rook while knowing that he’s relatively weak, so I’m not one to play to the meta anyway
I was unsure if it was referring to that or the comment about me doing a bunch of math about MUs being balanced even if you pick lower tier characters. In either case neither opinion was arrived at via statistical analysis. Stats are pretty tertiary to how I go about determining character strength. I think it’s always more effective to just think it through yourself.
The math for determining that many MUs are very even in this format was done by just assuming the Princess Power MU chart was true (not arrived at through statistical analysis). And then the rest is deterministic (there are 120 permutations of ways you can randomize a series with equal likelihood of each, you can determine exact win percent of a permutation by assuming a MU spread). When you do this for the Balance Team Battle format I found that the vast majority of MUs between most team combinations average out between 45% and 55% over a bo5 (this was done over a pretty large and diverse set of teams)
This is very small MU advantage over a bo5. For comparison a bo5 involving a 6-4 MU solo showown (say zane vs jaina) is 69% for the zane to win assuming equal skill; a .55 MU (say Perse v Lum) is 59%.
Now all that being said, I have some problems with the main assumption (Princess Power MU chart). However I think the analysis almost certainly holds for any MU chart within the realm of reason.
4 Likes
Put me in: 
Yeah there’s probably some sort of mathematical principle you can derive from this but I’m not a mathematician or anything. Character-specific matchups substantially increase the importance of isolated good/bad matchups in a standard counterpick format, while having random matchups across the roster in a game where the characters overall have the same power level will cause the average matchup to tend back towards 5/5.
1 Like
To be clear there are still plenty of bad rolls. It’s more that you don’t have to worry about playing a really low tier team since across all possible rolls it will be even-ish. You could have the best team and then every set roll a permutation of bad MUs. I don’t mind this since luck is always going to be a part of yomi. I just want to minimize punishment for not playing top tiers.
2 Likes
I haven’t formalized this, but given the randomization, I think you can say you have an even chance it’s getting each it’s the 25 possible matches, so the chance of winning the first game is just the average of all the MU values. And then the same logic basically applies to each following match, so you end up with a Bo5 with a MU number that’s equivalent to the average of the 25 possible MUs.
I believe this is the set of rosters:
| Player | Team |
|---|---|
| vengefulpickle |
 
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| Ivan |
    
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| Cypher |
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| ratxt1 |
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| mastrblastr |
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| feathers |
 
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| Nopethebard |
    
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| Caralad |
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| deluks917 |
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| Kathandu |
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| CarpeGuitarrem |
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| Migohunter |
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| Unaistade |
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| cpat |
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| OwlFlame |
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| flagrantangles |
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| ArthurWynne |
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| SouthpawHare |
|
@CarpeGuitarrem, I need yours by tonight, or I’ll give you a randomly selected one. 
2 Likes
Shoulda been in the inbox, not sure what happened, but here it is!
Yeah, I thought you had sent a message, but I couldn’t find it. Dunno. Anyhow, thanks!
1 Like
Matchup threads are sent, and here’s the bracket! Good luck, everyone!
2 Likes
I’m assuming we report in this thread, ye?
Carpe vs @Nopethebard
I manage to bonk the BEAST and scrape out a win, this matchup is such a scramble!
I throw cards everywhere and manage to stuff a Checkmate Buster, wild set overall despite my mouse glitching up and messing up some of those combos
Came down to the wire! I win by calling out a K-spin reveal with 8-throw, pretty spooky how limited Quince’s vortex-escape tools are…
ggs! There were a few pivot turns that went just right for me in those first two games, and it could’ve been very scarily different had they gone the other way. I’m also sad we didn’t make it to the Onimaru mirror.
6 Likes
That was kinda frustrating on my end. The downside of only playing Rook shows itself. On an unrelated note, I hate Setsuki
I did really like the gunning for the early CMB with only 2 aces known, land that and Setsuki has to play in terror the entire rest of the game.
1 Like
It was a big gamble. I honestly wish I had just held onto them
Kathandu vs @Migohunter 3-2
Very fun set overall! Very well played to migohunter! That Quince mirror was really fun haha.
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vengefulpickle vs @Caralad
1 - 3
- I was mostly playing low hand Zane (not the best Zane), but managed to YOLO MA my way to the win
- Apparently, I threw Caralad’s only block on turn 1, but even that didn’t save me from being whittled down, and then hit w/ the raw BU
- I had a Ven Hand, with only a single K at the end of the game, and no acros at all. Nearly silent Surgical Strike got blocked to boot.
- Couldn’t get to range, didn’t have payoff even if I did. Had lots of AA, but didn’t manage to hit w/ them enough before dieing.
Good games!
5 Likes
Cypher vs. @Owlflame
| Game | Cypher | Owlflame |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
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| 2 |
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| 3 |
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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Cypher wins, 3:1
- Game 1 was bog standard Argagarg vs. Onimaru. I thought I’d be clever on Round 1 by using a non-Ace block to indicate I didn’t have an Ace in hand. So I ate a 10 damage guard crush. But, after that, I just Ace blocked to victory.
- Game 2 came down to the wire, with both players having the upper hand at different parts of the match (especially after he blocked my poorly-timed Maximum Anarchy). A bad valuation by me, at the end, lost me a game I could have won if I thought for a little longer.
- Game 3 was an even bigger upset than the previous one! Quince isn’t advantaged against Zane, but now I was playing Persephone against Zane. That’s tough! Some aggressive soul-bearing ate up all of his Kings, though, and I managed to get the hard-lock into a concede before things got too out of hand.
- Game 4 was another difficult matchup, but I manage to thread the needle and throw like 90% of DeGray’s Ace dodges. A few dragon-form K throws later, and the life lead was too great to overcome.
Good games and well played, Owlflame!
8 Likes
ArthurWynne vs @Ivan
Chased too much, ran smack into TD, 7-throw,AAAA.
had lots of early damage, including three not-very-useful 10s to power up for TPOS.
Ivan got a lot more value out of his combat wins.
Human vs Human all game. I had early silent AA for a life lead, and Ivan seemed to be low on throws.
Zane brutalised Arg until 70-something vs 19, but Ivan almost turned it around! Great game.
6 Likes
mastrblastr 3 - 0 @CarpeGuitarrem
> I went extremely throw heavy and it paid off. I think Carpe had an awkward hand at times and I was able to keep him from having 10 up ever
> close game, I got stuffed a lot but I had a pilebunker hit early. Go down to 3cards power up for Ace unknown on last combat and then reveal the sneaky King to win.
> early game looks tough for me but I stay patient get oni to a lowish hand and throw him for big damage 3 straight turns. I have 2 jokers , first stops 20 2nd stops lethal, and last combat us both at 3hp and I win the 50-50
GGs Carpe super fun set!
5 Likes