The new model version will take a while, so in the meantime I’ve added some more plots/tables for the monocolour matchups. There are now matchup evaluations averaged over turn order (“general matchup”), and evaluations for how dependent matchups are on who goes first.
As usual, more results on the site (this page), so here are some stand-outs:
Fairest general matchups (apart from mirrors, which are always perfectly fair):
| Deck 1 | Deck 2 | Deck 1 win probability | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonoGreen | MonoRed | 0.500 | 5.0-5.0 | 1.00 |
| MonoBlue | MonoPurple | 0.540 | 5.4-4.6 | 0.92 |
| MonoPurple | MonoRed | 0.459 | 4.6-5.4 | 0.92 |
| MonoBlue | MonoGreen | 0.456 | 4.6-5.4 | 0.91 |
| MonoBlue | MonoWhite | 0.451 | 4.5-5.5 | 0.90 |
Unfairest general matchups:
| Deck 1 | Deck 2 | Deck 1 win probability | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonoBlack | MonoGreen | 0.722 | 7.2-2.8 | 0.56 |
| MonoPurple | MonoWhite | 0.680 | 6.8-3.2 | 0.64 |
| MonoBlack | MonoWhite | 0.627 | 6.3-3.7 | 0.75 |
| MonoBlack | MonoBlue | 0.604 | 6.0-4.0 | 0.79 |
| MonoRed | MonoWhite | 0.412 | 4.1-5.9 | 0.82 |
Surprise surprise, Black has many of the most lopsided matchups.
Fairest matchups WRT turn order:
| Deck 1 | Deck 2 | P1 win probability | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonoPurple | MonoWhite | 0.507 | 5.1-4.9 | 0.99 |
| MonoBlack | MonoPurple | 0.509 | 5.1-4.9 | 0.98 |
| MonoGreen | MonoGreen | 0.487 | 4.9-5.1 | 0.97 |
| MonoRed | MonoRed | 0.481 | 4.8-5.2 | 0.96 |
| MonoBlack | MonoGreen | 0.478 | 4.8-5.2 | 0.96 |
Most P1-slanted matchups:
| P1 | P2 | P1 win probability | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonoBlue | MonoGreen | 0.757 | 7.6-2.4 | 0.49 |
| MonoBlack | MonoWhite | 0.696 | 7.0-3.0 | 0.61 |
| MonoWhite | MonoWhite | 0.668 | 6.7-3.3 | 0.66 |
| MonoBlack | MonoRed | 0.642 | 6.4-3.6 | 0.72 |
| MonoRed | MonoWhite | 0.612 | 6.1-3.9 | 0.78 |
Most P2-slanted matchups:
| P1 | P2 | P1 win probability | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonoGreen | MonoPurple | 0.309 | 3.1-6.9 | 0.62 |
| MonoPurple | MonoPurple | 0.391 | 3.9-6.1 | 0.78 |
| MonoBlue | MonoPurple | 0.411 | 4.1-5.9 | 0.82 |
| MonoBlack | MonoBlue | 0.456 | 4.6-5.4 | 0.91 |
| MonoBlue | MonoBlue | 0.466 | 4.7-5.3 | 0.93 |
The above results don’t account for uncertainty at all, I’m just using the mean matchup. Comments welcome.