Codex data thread

Codex
38

A quick update on the changes after CAMS19.

Player skill

Player%20skill
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Player rank

Player%20rank
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bansa jumps up the board after coming second with a Blue starter. Persephone enters on the higher end of the board after a strong performance with MonoGreen (I have no match data yet from before her hiatus).

Monocolour matchups

Mono%20matchups
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Monocolour matchup details
P1 deck P2 deck P1 win probability matchup fairness
1 Green Purple 0.493 4.9-5.1 0.99
2 Black Black 0.519 5.2-4.8 0.96
3 Black Purple 0.481 4.8-5.2 0.96
4 Green Red 0.519 5.2-4.8 0.96
5 Blue Blue 0.473 4.7-5.3 0.95
6 Blue Purple 0.473 4.7-5.3 0.95
7 White Blue 0.461 4.6-5.4 0.92
8 Purple Purple 0.548 5.5-4.5 0.90
9 White Black 0.439 4.4-5.6 0.88
10 Blue Red 0.569 5.7-4.3 0.86
11 Green Green 0.431 4.3-5.7 0.86
12 Red Black 0.572 5.7-4.3 0.86
13 Green White 0.581 5.8-4.2 0.84
14 Red White 0.409 4.1-5.9 0.82
15 White White 0.591 5.9-4.1 0.82
16 Red Green 0.610 6.1-3.9 0.78
17 Red Blue 0.615 6.1-3.9 0.77
18 Red Red 0.620 6.2-3.8 0.76
19 Blue Green 0.627 6.3-3.7 0.75
20 Blue White 0.630 6.3-3.7 0.74
21 Purple Red 0.367 3.7-6.3 0.73
22 White Red 0.655 6.6-3.4 0.69
23 Black Red 0.663 6.6-3.4 0.67
24 Purple Black 0.323 3.2-6.8 0.65
25 Black Blue 0.693 6.9-3.1 0.61
26 Purple Blue 0.300 3.0-7.0 0.60
27 Black White 0.709 7.1-2.9 0.58
28 Blue Black 0.289 2.9-7.1 0.58
29 White Purple 0.264 2.6-7.4 0.53
30 Green Black 0.262 2.6-7.4 0.52
31 Black Green 0.745 7.5-2.5 0.51
32 White Green 0.743 7.4-2.6 0.51
33 Green Blue 0.753 7.5-2.5 0.49
34 Purple Green 0.240 2.4-7.6 0.48
35 Red Purple 0.801 8.0-2.0 0.40
36 Purple White 0.824 8.2-1.8 0.35

The main difference here is that P1 MonoPurple is considered to take a beating from P2 MonoGreen (2.4-7.6). This is because the matchup didn’t have much evidence before, and CAMS19 had the following relevant matches:

  • Unity [Balance/Growth]/Present vs. Legion [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength, Legion wins
  • FrozenStorm [Future/Past]/Finesse vs. Unity [Balance/Growth]/Present, Unity wins
  • Unity [Balance/Growth]/Present vs. Persephone MonoGreen, Persephone wins
  • FrozenStorm [Future/Past]/Finesse vs. charnel_mouse [Balance]/Blood/Strength, charnel_mouse wins

All P2 wins.

Current monocolour Nash equilibrium:
P1: Pick Black or Red at 16:19.
P2: Pick Black or White at 6:1.
Value: About 5.5-4.5, slightly P1-favoured.
Slight change in overall matchup, both players favour Black much less than before.

If the turn order is unknown, then both players have the same equilibrium strategy: pick Black, all the time, since it outperforms all the other monodecks when averaged over turn order.

Next update should be for Metalize’s data.