Yeah, that would really helpful, thank you!
I’ve tried some more complex version of the model, but it didn’t seem to make much difference to the results – if anything, it made the predictive performance worse. At this point, the thing I need most is more data. I’ll keep plugging away at adding results from the Seasonal Swiss tournaments.
I’ve also rejigged the format of the main data file, so that it’s hopefully easier to add match data:
- Deck information for each player is now done per match.
- Instead of giving deck information in 4 columns (starter, 3 specs), there’s now a single column for the deck’s name in forum format, e.g. [Balance]/Blood/Strength. I’ll go through and standardise the deck names. Just make sure the slashes are there, and the first spec is one for the starter deck. For example, Balance/Strength/Growth with the Green starter is fine, Strength/Balance/Growth with the Green starter is not. You don’t need the brackets. Alternatively, you can add a deck’s nickname to the nickname sheet, and enter that instead. I’ve already added some common ones: MonoRed etc., Nightmare, Miracle Grow, and some others.
- There’s also a new column for match format (forum/Tabletopia/face-to-face), so I can start using the data kindly collected by Metalize.
- There’s an optional column to indicate that the player order in a match is unknown. If it’s known, just leave it blank.
If there’s anything else that you think would make entry easier, please let me know.
Current to-do list includes adding more match data, and maybe putting my modelling work up on GitHub so people can
laugh at my terrible Stan code see the details if they’re curious.