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Win condition logic

What is the normal reasoning used to choose a win condition? I’ve been trying to choose win conditions that hard counter what I think the opponent is going for but I don’t know if that’s what I should be doing. If that isn’t right, how should I choose?

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How I typically do it is:

  1. I have a basic idea of the win condition I think I should pursue from the jump, determined by what I think will be the smoothest path to success based on the matchup (similar to what you’re talking about; “which of my win conditions best counters theirs”, but taking into consideration not just the end-game “win” cards but also the supporting cast of techs leading up)
  2. Tech early/midgame with some flexibility to react to changing circumstances (did one of us whiff? Did things line up poorly for one of us, missing a key starter card on a turn it was really needed?)
  3. Depending on how things are going, either stay on path or pivot to the win condition that best shuts down what I already know the opponent has teched / is leaning towards.

I don’t think you can be hard-set on a win condition from turn 1, so if you’re locking in on something that probably isn’t the right approach. But I don’t think it’s bad to theory-craft a little at turn 1 to hedge towards what you think will produce the best outcomes.

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That sounds a lot like what I do. I have a no particular strategy turn 1, a broad strategy turn 2, and determine whether I need to pivot or stay the course around when I build my tech 2 or turn 4, whichever comes first

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Some counters to your win conditions are on tech 0 (sacrifice the weak against lawbringer gryphon for example) or on character cards (quince against big tech 2s). Most anti-win conditions have yet to be teched (chaos mirror against Terras Q for example).
One deception I’ve got with Codex is that many strategies do not have any counter and most matchs are proactive strategy vs proactive strategy with no reaction to what your opponent is doing. What is more most ultimate spells aren’t efficient enough to be played competitively.

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yeah. Aside from a few exceptions, Tech III and ults aren’t that good. Spells like free speech or surprise attack, instead, can turn tables cripping the opponent.

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