News Shop
Events Forums

[Tournament] Lum's Long Odds - Ongoing!


Same with CKR, I think.


Leontes vs. Ivan

:midori::psfist::knockdown::jaina: 5-0
:midori::psfist::knockdown::setsuki: 10.5-0
:midori::knockdown::psfist::degrey: 10.5-5
:midori::knockdown::psfist::degrey: 10.5-10
:zane::psfist::knockdown::degrey: 15-10

Tense set! I was incredibly triggered after game 3’s ending and had to keep it together for the rest of the set. Game 4 I drew great cards but ran into an endless sea of DeGrey 7, so then I got even more pissed and played Zane in game 5 lol.

ggs Ivan!


Standings After Week 3

  1. Niijima-San: 55.5
  2. Leontes: 49
  3. mastrblastr: 48.5
  4. thehug0naut: 48
  5. GutterOwl: 45.5
  6. MR: 45
  7. Ivan: 45
  8. CKR: 44.5
  9. Southpaw Hare: 42.5
  10. neigutten: 41.5
  11. ArthurWynne: 39
  12. Castanietzsche: 37
  13. variable: 37
  14. snoc: 36.5
  15. MysticDeadman: 33.5
  16. mysticjuicer: 30.5
  17. flagrantangles: 30.5
  18. FaceOnMars: 27
  19. Fusxfaranto: 26
  20. UTRALAW: 26
  21. Hobusu: 24.5
  22. vengefulpickle: 21
  23. Three Headed Monkey: 13
  24. Hamvvar: 12

Week 4 Matchups

Southpaw Hare/neigutten
Three Headed Monkey/Hamvvar

[details=Week 1 Matchups]
mastrblastr/Three Headed Monkey

[details=Week 2 Matchups]
Southpaw Hare/mysticjuicer

Week 3 Matchups

Three Headed Monkey/UTRALAW

Week 4 Totals

  1. thehug0naut: 21.5 (W)
  2. vengefulpickle: 18.5 (W)
  3. Leontes: 18 (W)
  4. UTRALAW: 16.5 (W)
  5. variable: 15.5 (W)
  6. MysticDeadman: 15.5 (W)
  7. SouthpawHare: 15.5 (W)
  8. hamvvar: 15 (W)
  9. thehug0naut: 15 (W)
  10. MR: 14 (W)
  11. FaceOnMars: 14 (W)
  12. Ivan: 13.5 (W)
  13. CKR: 12.5
  14. flagrantangles: 11.5
  15. mastrblastr: 10.5
  16. snoc: 10
  17. Fusxfaranto: 10
  18. Niijima-san: 10
  19. ThreeHeadedMonkey: 9.5
  20. GutterOwl: 9
  21. Hobusu: 7
  22. ArthurWynne: 4.5
  23. mysticjuicer: 0
  24. neigutten: 0

Running Standings

  1. Leontes: 67
  2. Niijima-San: 65.5
  3. thehug0naut: 63
  4. mastrblastr: 59
  5. MR: 59
  6. Ivan: 58.5
  7. Castanietzsche: 58.5
  8. Southpaw Hare: 58
  9. CKR: 57
  10. GutterOwl: 54.5
  11. variable: 52.5
  12. MysticDeadman: 49
  13. snoc: 46.5
  14. ArthurWynne: 43.5
  15. UTRALAW: 42.5
  16. flagrantangles: 42
  17. neigutten: 41.5
  18. FaceOnMars: 41
  19. vengefulpickle: 39.5
  20. Fusxfaranto: 36
  21. Hobusu: 31.5
  22. mysticjuicer: 30.5
  23. Hamvvar: 27
  24. Three Headed Monkey: 19.5



In this post I will take a running analysis of the characters in this tournament. I will update it as the weeks pass. At the end I will also include an analysis of significant matchups but not enough games have been played for that yet.

And thanks you to anyone who reported their matches with just the individual points played per game next to each game instead of running tallies or post game sum-ups; that makes this much easier!

Also, I accidentally edited my last analysis and overwrote it with this one. Oh well, live and learn. If a mod could roll back that post one edit for me that’d be cool.

Character Analysis

Points won/lost

:chibiargagarg: 10/5
Rating: 2
Not picked at all week 3.

:chibibbb: 26.5/9.5
Rating: 2.79
BBB with a big boost this week, throwing up only Ws.

:chibidegrey: 64.5/50.5
Rating: 1.28
DeGrey getting revenge for his underutilization in the normal 20xx by being the highest played member of the big crew in this tournament. Turns out that no matter what the matchup numbers are the constant threat of infinite dodge/unbeatable throw is still pretty good.

:chibigeiger: 5.5/10.5
Rating: .52
Not selected at all week 3.

:chibigloria: 48/44
Rating: 1.09
Gloria makes a large comeback in week three after a dismal placement after week 2. She is now breaking even.

:chibigrave: 39/31.5
Rating: 1.24
Grave manages to pull himself out of the dungeon here thanks almost entirely to a trifecta of wins against Persephone.

:chibigwen: 14.5/32.5
Rating: .45
Gwen takes an even bigger beating this week, putting her in the “solidly crap” pile. A volatile character who can pull out wins, she is almost certainly not consistent enough for this format.

:chibijaina: 73.5/48.5
Rating: 1.52
Jaina sitting on a pretty good mountain of points. When your numbers are as bad as hers it’s hard not to.

:chibilum: 33/34.5
Rating: .96
Lum clambers his way back up to even, as I predicted he would. Expect to see him to continue to rise.

:chibimenelker: 47/38.5
Rating: 1.22
Menelker usage exploded this week, and in the aftermath we see he has a net positive rating. It looks like he has a place in this tournament against Zane at the very least.

:chibimidori: 88/63.5
Rating: 1.39
Midori maintaining a good place in the mix.

:chibionimaru: 22/17
Rating: 1.29
Oni has the least points/game out of any character so far this tourney, showing that the favored character has a tendency of winning in his games.

:chibipersephone: 87.5/104
Rating: .84
Persephone is the most played character still, except week 3 saw a HUUUUUGE blow to her points, completely flipping her. I doubt this will stop her from showing up, but it was a grim week for the dominatrix.

:chibiquince: 52/55.5
Rating: .94
Quince just about even thus far, with a good amount of usage. Though I see that Quince vs. Valerie is listed as favorable in the points spread, so I wonder if we might see a vulnerable point there. (Same comment, same analysis, same prognosis).

:chibirook: 27.5/52
Rating: .53
Rook chilling in the dumpster with his loser friends.

:chibisetsuki: 23.5/92.5
Rating: .25
She appears vulnerable in some matches here, namely Midori and DeGrey. I expect her to end up near the bottom at the end of this tournament. Those were my comments from last week and they look even more prescient now. We still saw very strong usage from her though, indicating that nobody gives two shits about my analysis. Ignore at your own peril.

:chibitroq: 20/14
Rating: 1.43
Troq doing fine. Troq happy to rest while little people get played. Troq eat grass and watch.

:chibivalerie: 33.5/46
Rating: .73
Valerie Slipping into the negatives, which is probably where she will remain until the end.

:chibivendetta: 47.5/20
Rating: 2.375
Ven barely used this week, with another huge vulnerability rearing it’s ugly head (Menelker matchup is in no way 5/5). Expect continued low usage.

:chibizane: 30.5/23.5
Rating: 1.3
Zane gets a good bump in usage this week as people dial in more on their tournament strategies.

This is my analysis so far. Keep fighting!


These analyses are great please keep them coming.
Will also keep in mind to post individual points for each match now =p


FaceOnMars vs. flagrantangles
0.0 :lum: :pschip: :psfist: :quince: 5.5
0.0 :gwen: :pschip: :psfist: :quince: 6.0
4.0 :gwen: :psfist: :pschip: :quince: 0.0
5.0 :gwen: :psfist: :pschip: :valerie: 0.0
5.0 :gwen: :psfist: :pschip: :valerie: 0.0

Thanks to @flagrantangles for a fun set. He has been very strong this season and I’m proud to have done well.

FaceOnMars 14.0
flagrantangles 11.5

(Edited scores)
Honestly people, I am good at some things.:rage:


This can not possibly be correct, unless Gwen-Quince is a 4-4 matchup.


flagrantangles should have 11.5 (5.5 for Quince vs Lum, and 6.0 for Quince vs Gwen)

your score of 14 is correct


:chibiquince:Two Truths :chibiquince:


If I ever made a personal MU chart, I’d intentionally make the Quince mirror something like 5.5-5.5 and see how long it takes for people to notice.

wait now people will be watching for that


vengefulpickle vs @Hobusu

0.0 :persephone: < :setsuki: 3.5
6.5 :persephone: > :setsuki: 0.0
5.5 :persephone: > :onimaru: 0.0
6.5 :persephone: > :setsuki: 0.0
0.0 :persephone: < :setsuki: 3.5

Total: 18.5 - 7

The games I lost against Setsuki I was playing super scared, and @Hobusu capitalized with maximum throws… I never correctly adjusted my range to compensate (the games I won I was able to get the drop on Sets and keep up a significant hand advantage).

A fun set!


The games I lost all involved @vengefulpickle getting a lockdown established to some degree, and possibly involved super scared myself… Also, the first three games he played (and won combat using) Queen on the first turn, then he finally played something else on turn one for game 4… A King to catch my obvious dodge. Got my revenge by beating the two Queens he played on the first two turns of game 5 with a Queen of my own and a dodge.

Not happy with my character choices, since Onimaru felt really bad the one time I played him (I was terrified of recurring dodges the whole game) but my other characters are even more heavily advantaged… C’est la vie. Opted to return to Setsuki because the first game had been such a crushing win, so I figured I’d rather have a good chance of getting at least one more win even if that gave me fewer points. Didn’t really work out that well, but at least I enjoyed these games (even the ones I lost to some extent).


@GutterOwl vs MR

:persephone::pschip::psfist::menelker: (0,0 - 4,5) bleeding wounds…
:persephone::pschip::psfist::menelker: (0,0 - 9,0) bleeding wounds…
:onimaru::psfist::pschip::menelker: (4,0 - 9,0) orange crushed.
:onimaru::pschip::psfist::grave: (4,0 - 14,0) scary oni comeback from 10hp vs 54hp to 10hp vs 4hp, luckly dodged a Q and no Joker on oni side (even with only 13 cards left), phew!
:onimaru::psfist::pschip::grave: (9,0 - 14,0) no way

Total score (please check if it’s ok)
GutterOwl: 9,0
MR: 14,0

GGs GutterOwl!
I love our Perse/Oni - Mene/Grave matches!

Best of luck in your next games!


Leontes defeats Niijima-san 18-10






Oh my god.

The entire set consisted of me trying to play the DSD 50/50 mixup and IaN masterfully avoiding it. In game 3 he must have won 7 combats in a row when I had assembled Exodia, but in game 4 he landed like 15 Jacks and we both healed enough for me to get off the checkmate Dodge.

The final combats of the set were pretty crazy. I ended up getting DSD, going for it, getting duffed (allowing me to assume that he has a Joker in hand), and then using that sweet 2.2 speed K to undercut his options. He bluffed twice when getting hit by a K and I managed to dump my entire hand with a straight, giving me a single Ace in hand. Life totals were 8-10, me with an Ace and 3 cards for Zane.

I topdeck a 4, and we go Dodge/Dodge.

Then I topdeck a Bonecracker, grab him and delete his Joker into single A for the win.

What a clown fiesta. Probably one of the swingiest sets I’ve ever played. Easily could have been 5-0 either way.

ggs as always @Niijima-san.


The set was fun but I despise how it ended. I could have jokered the huge k combo easily and didn’t thinking if he dumps he’s screwed. And then he dumps and should be screwed but instead draws the one card in his deck that can kill me.


UTRALAW vs Fusxfaranto

:menelker::pschip::psfist::chibivendetta: 5.0

Utralaw-(6.0)+(5.5)+(5.0)=16.5 points
Fusxfaranto-(5.0)+(5.0)= 10 points

GGs Fusxfaranto almost all the matches were really close


3HM (9.5p) < hamvvar (15p)

Rook > Jaina 4p
Rook > Midori 5.5p
Rook < Midori 4.5p
Rook < Midori 4.5p
Oni < Midori 6p

ggs @ThreeHeadedMonkey


Round 4,

@snoc vs. variable:

:valerie::pschip::psfist::chibiquince:: 4.5 points for me.
:chibisetsuki::psfist::pschip::quince:: 5.5 points for snoc.
:setsuki::pschip::psfist::chibimenelker:: 5.5 points for me.
:setsuki::pschip::psfist::chibimenelker:: 5.5 points for me.
:chibisetsuki::wink::pschip::menelker:: 4.5 points for snoc. (And almost a perfect!)

Point Alchemy (It’s easier with a bit of prep work!):

snoc: 10
variable: 15.5

Thanks for playing & good luck in the rest of the tournament, snoc!


What’s going on with the mysticjuicer/MysticDeadman match? Why is MysticDeadman’s score “provisional”?


@mysticjuicer forfeited this week, so @MysticDeadman gets the median winning score. That won’t be fully determined until all matches have been played, though.