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[Tournament] Lum's Long Odds - Ongoing!


#302

ow oof ow my bones


#303

But he wasn’t playing Menelker… No bonecracker in sight! :chibimenelker:


#304

Yeah, everything came up roses for me that game. I’ll definitely take the win, but I feel like I mainly won it because I guessed right a lot. I can’t claim I had enough sense of your valuation to make math-reads.


#305

eh. That’s Yomi. Sometimes the gut works.


#306

I am a gut/instinctual Yomi player. Works for me :wink:


#307

Yeah, but I’m greedy. I want both! :smile:


#308

Did I miss anything? I haven’t gotten a new matchup for this week yet.


#309

Ah, sorry, we’re still in a holding pattern while @Leontes gets back from PAXSouth. We’ll likely play round 8 (the final round!) next week.


#310

We’ll be playing Friday at 6pm PST!


#311

Leontes vs @mastrblastr

:menelker::psfist::pschip::valerie: 5-0
:menelker::psfist::pschip::valerie: 10-0
:menelker::psfist::pschip::valerie: 15-0
:menelker::pschip::psfist::vendetta: 15-5
:midori::psfist::pschip::vendetta: 20-5

Man, I’m really running away with this one. Games 1/2/5 I had RIDICULOUS draws (literally emptied deck of reversals each game in first 25 cards or so) and lots of jokers. Game 3 was a lot closer but I snuck in a 10 Throw late when threatening a lethal bQ for the win.

:vendetta: got a few fast combat wins in (and almost ended me with a t4 or 5 Surgical that I dodged) and I couldn’t get back in the game. Figured I’d just play :midori: for game 5 since I was comfortable in the matchup and the deck delivered.

Ggs mastr, I was dreading this match a lot because you are one of the players I’m most scared to face in standard cp format. Luckily you couldn’t :zane::degrey: me because I had a huge point lead so I was able to get you in the low-tier battles.

Only collusion can stop me now! Bahahaha! :wink:

EDIT: Feeling myself a bit atm so I’ll leave this here:

LLO Character Individual Match Records (so far):

:menelker: 73.68%, 14-5
:midori: 75%, 9-3
:jaina: 100%, 3-0
:zane: 100%, 1-0

O_O


#312

Here we are, in the final week!

Standings after Week 7

  1. Leontes: 127
  2. Ivan: 111.5
  3. thehug0naut: 103
  4. CKR: 101.5
  5. MR: 95
  6. flagrantangles: 92.5
  7. mastrblastr: 91.5
  8. Southpaw Hare: 91
  9. variable: 90.5
  10. Niijima-San: 90.5
  11. snoc: 87
  12. FaceOnMars: 86
  13. Castanietzsche: 83.5
  14. GutterOwl: 79.5
  15. vengefulpickle: 79.5
  16. Fusxfaranto: 75
  17. MysticDeadman: 73
  18. ArthurWynne: 72
  19. mysticjuicer: 70.5
  20. Three Headed Monkey: 64.5
  21. UTRALAW: 64.5
  22. Hamvvar: 61
  23. neigutten: 58.5
  24. Hobusu: 48.5

Week 8 Matchups

Leontes/MR75
thehug0naut/Ivan
flagrantangles/CKR
mastrblastr/variable
Niijima-San/Southpaw Hare
GutterOwl/snoc
Castanietzsche/FaceOnMars
vengefulpickle/MysticDeadman
ArthurWynne/Fusxfaranto
Hamvvar/mysticjuicer
neigutten/ThreeHeadedMonkey
UTRALAW/Hobusu

Week 1 Matchups

mysticjuicer/Castanietzsche
mastrblastr/Three Headed Monkey
flagrantangles/ArthurWynne
Niijima-san/snoc
Leontes/UTRALAW
Fusxfaranto/MysticDeadman
CKR/neigutten
SouthpawHare/Hobusu
GutterOwl/variable
MR75/vengefulpickle
thehug0naut/FaceOnMars
Ivan/Hamvvar

Week 2 Matchups

Leontes/variable
FaceOnMars/Neiijima-san
ArthurWynne/mastrblastr
Ivan/Fusxfaranto
Southpaw Hare/mysticjuicer
neigutten/vengefulpickle
Hamvvar/CKR
MysticDeadman/MR75
Hobusu/Castanietzsche
snoc/flagrantangles
UTRALAW/GutterOwl
thehug0naut/ThreeHeadedMonkey

Week 3 Matchups

Niijima-san/MR75
Ivan/Leontes
mastrblastr/Castanietzsche
neigutten/GutterOwl
SouthpawHare/ArthurWynne
CKR/mysticjuicer
snoc/Fusxfaranto
vengefulpickle/thehug0naut
variable/FaceOnMars
flagrantangles/Hobusu
Hamvvar/MysticDeadman
Three Headed Monkey/UTRALAW

Week 4 Matchups

Niijima-san/Leontes
mastrblastr/thehug0naut
GutterOwl/MR75
Ivan/CKR
Southpaw Hare/neigutten
ArthurWynne/Castanietzsche
variable/snoc
MysticDeadman/mysticjuicer
flagrantangles/FaceOnMars
Fusxfaranto/UTRALAW
Hobusu/vengefulpickle
Three Headed Monkey/Hamvvar

Week 5 Matchups

Leontes/thehug0naut
Niijima-san/mastrblastr
MR75/Ivan
Castanietzsche/SouthpawHare
CKR/GutterOwl
variable/MysticDeadman
snoc/ArthurWynne
UTRALAW/flagrantangles
neigutten/FaceOnMars
vengefulpickle/Fusxfaranto
Hobusu/Hamvvar
mysticjuicer/ThreeHeadedMonkey

Week 6 Matchups

Leontes/CKR
mastrblastr/SouthpawHare
thehug0naut/MR75
Niijima-san/Ivan
Castanietzsche/snoc
flagrantangles/MysticDeadman
variable/vengefulpickle
FaceOnMars/GutterOwl
ArthurWynne/UTRALAW
Hamvvar/neigutten
Fusxfaranto/mysticjuicer
Hobusu/Three Headed Monkey

Week 7 Matchups

Leontes/mastrblastr
Ivan/SouthpawHare
thehug0naut/variable
MR75/flagrantangles
CKR/Castanietzsche
snoc/FaceOnMars
Niijima-san/ArthurWynne
GutterOwl/MysticDeadman
vengeflupickle/ThreeHeadedMonkey
neigutten/Fusxfaranto
UTRALAW/hamvvar
mysticjuicer/Hobusu

Week 8 Results

  1. MR: 26 (W)
  2. mysticjuicer: 19.5 (W)
  3. CKR: 18.5 (W)
  4. Niijima-san: 18 (W)
  5. Castanietzsche: 18 (W)
  6. thehug0naut: 17 (W)
  7. UTRALAW: 17 (W)
  8. Fusxfaranto: 15.5 (W)
  9. Ivan: 10.5
  10. ArthurWynne: 10
  11. Hobusu: 9.5
  12. FaceOnMars: 8
  13. hamvvar: 5
  14. flagrantangles: 5
  15. SouthpawHare: 5
  16. Leontes: 0

Running Standings

  1. Leontes: 127
  2. Ivan: 122
  3. MR: 121
  4. thehug0naut: 120
  5. CKR: 120
  6. Niijima-San: 108.5
  7. Castanietzsche: 101.5
  8. flagrantangles: 97.5
  9. Southpaw Hare: 96
  10. FaceOnMars: 94
  11. Fusxfaranto: 90.5
  12. mysticjuicer: 90
  13. ArthurWynne: 82
  14. UTRALAW: 81.5
  15. Hamvvar: 66
  16. Hobusu: 58
  17. mastrblastr: 91.5
  18. variable: 90.5
  19. snoc: 87
  20. GutterOwl: 79.5
  21. vengefulpickle: 79.5
  22. MysticDeadman: 73
  23. Three Headed Monkey: 64.5
  24. neigutten: 58.5

#313

Ah! It seems I am correct. So now we have a kind of prisoner’s dilemma.

Unfortunately, since Ivan is playing too well I can’t reasonably forfeit round 8 (until I see the results of his match), nor can I be 100% sure that shenanigans will not occur that rob me of my victory!

If @Ivan beats @thehug0naut with a reasonable set score (like 15-10 or something) then I can win 0 points in week 8 and win the tournament (127-126.5). So hugs is playing spoiler at this point.

However! If Ivan and thehug0naut decide to collude, then Ivan can reach 151.5 pts, which is 24.5 points ahead of me. If they do, I can STILL win it if I 5-0 against @MR75 and the points are kind to me. This seems unlikely, but still possible (they can also make thehug0naut have 143, which would be tough for me to beat as well).

So I conclude that if they collude, then I must collude with MR75 in order to fight back against collusion! This is my conclusion.

However, MR can decide not to help me fight against collusion. I could offer to give him 40 points instead, in order to make sure that one of the evil colluders loses in the end! I would be willing to make that sacrifice.

So in all of these cases, it’s +EV for me to wait until Ivan/thehug0naut game is played, and then decide what I should do after, right? However, if Ivan only scores 15 points, then my match won’t be worth anything really (unless I throw it to give MR the win).

Of course, you guys aren’t going to be meanies and try to cheat me, right?! :wink:

For completeness’ sake @CKR and @flagrantangles can also form an alliance and win the crown, too, haha!

Let’s all play nice ok

sweatdrops


#314

Perhaps results get passed to @vengefulpickle and the reveal is given at the end of the round to give no info away?

Hmm but then you’d have to have no spectators to each match, which is boring…


#315

Hmmm 40 points are quite a good offer…but:

  1. they would not be enough to guarantee me tourney’s victory! :scream: :joy:
  2. I’ll have to play as Jaina vs Geiger: no no no !!

So I have to pass and play honestly :sweat_smile:

Prepare yourself for a 12-12 tie!!! :rofl::rofl::rofl:


#316

#317

how do I interpret this


#318

In order to collude, one of the members of the pair needs to not PtW. Therefore, always PtW; don’t collude.


#319

It’s sort of a prisoner’s dilemma situation.


#320

In this post I will take a running analysis of the characters in this tournament. I will update it as the weeks pass. At the end I will also include an analysis of significant matchups but not enough games have been played for that yet. Also next analysis will be my final analysis of the tournament so hopefully I will have some good writeups for y’all.

And thanks you to anyone who reported their matches with just the individual points played per game next to each game instead of running tallies or post game sum-ups; that makes this much easier!

Character Analysis

Points won/lost

:chibiargagarg: 30/31
Rating: .97
Argagarg has been used very sparingly, and is coming up pretty even.

:chibibbb: 46.5/31
Rating: 1.5
BBB loses a little bit but still in a great spot.

:chibidegrey: 94/119.5
Rating: .79
DeGrey really starting to tank it. Interestingly, his W/L is precisely even, so this just suggests that his numbers are off… to the positive!

:chibigeiger: 5.5/10.5
Rating: .52
Not selected at all week 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7. Looks like nobody likes his numbers.

:chibigloria: 84/74.5
Rating: 1.13
Gloria gains a little ground coming into the home stretch.

:chibigrave: 161.5/154
Rating: 1.05
Grave still vacillating right around even, but still seeing steady usage.

:chibigwen: 103.5/99
Rating: 1.05
Slips a bit again, teetering on even.

:chibijaina: 104/108.5
Rating: .96
The worst part about this is that the matchup chart is being proven right on Jaina.

:chibilum: 90/72
Rating: 1.25
Looks like Lum will finish the tournament on a positive record, as predicted.

:chibimenelker: 261.5/220.5
Rating: 1.19
Menelker, already the most used character, saw an even greater usage week 7. Menelker meta all the way.

:chibimidori: 112/79.5
Rating: 1.41
Used once, got the W.

:chibionimaru: 65/74.5
Rating: .87
Fading further

:chibipersephone: 157/198.5
Rating: .79
Persephone bounces back a bit, but the once reigning queen of LLO will not have the chance to go positive before the event ends.

:chibiquince: 151/142.5
Rating: 1.06
The big gains made in week 6 are immediately reversed, putting Quince back close to even.

:chibirook: 58/86
Rating: .67
Getting about one use a week, winning back points in little steps.

:chibisetsuki: 82/131.5
Rating: .62
After not being picked at all for two weeks, sees a huge resurgence in usage, and while still remaining steadfastly negative, made big gains this week. She’ll still end up negative, but now may not be last.

:chibitroq: 20/19.5
Rating: 1.03
After being used once last week is once again ignored.

:chibivalerie: 49/90
Rating: .54
Valerie takes up the mantle that Setsuki has held weeks 1-6. I knew Val would end negative, but it looks like she may end up taking the booby prize (pun intended).

:chibivendetta: 102/50.5
Rating: 2.02
Vendetta looking like the most underrated member of the Yomi cast. Shhh, don’t tell anyone.

:chibizane: 38.5/37
Rating: 1.04
Brought out of the woodwork to knock him slightly off kilter. Sorry MD. Zane actually has four (!) more wins than losses, so these numbers tell us that not only does Zane have really good MU numbers, that they are accurate. Hmm… perhaps a nerf is in order?

This is my analysis so far. One last week to go!


#321

A couple of things:

  1. I didn’t sufficiently vet the results of the code I wrote to figure out this final round of matchups, and as a result had paired @mastrblastr with @SouthpawHare, even though they had already played (thanks for the catch, @mastrblastr!) The only matchups that need to change are to swap @variable and @SouthpawHare, so I’ve made that edit in the matchups post, and will be editing the matchup threads as well.
  2. @thehug0naut is having some dental troubles, and may not be able to finish by the deadline. I don’t want to award points from that matchup due to forfeit, so I’m giving him, and the rest of you, more time to finish this weeks matches (try and get them played in the next week or so, but if you can’t, just let me know).