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[Tournament] Lum's Long Odds - Ongoing!


#202

Thanks! The surgery went well, and everyone is back home and doing well.


#203

This is where I reveal my lack of knowledge about Swiss tournaments, but have the matchups been shifted slightly to generate new opponents?

My naive reading would had leontes/niijima, thehug0naut/MR, mastrblastr/Ivan but that’s not that same as the matches we’ve been assigned.


#204

@thehug0naut
I think that’s because Leontes/nijima was already played, so starting from the first position, you have to match vs first “free” opponent (an opponent vs whom you haven’t played yet)


#205

Yeah, this was the first round I had to tweak to prevent any repeat matches.


#206

@mastrblastr asked about tie breakers, which made me realize that a) I didn’t write down the rules in the original post, and b) I didn’t apply it correctly this week. I’ve fixed both, but the matchups didn’t change.


#207

ANALYSIS POST:

In this post I will take a running analysis of the characters in this tournament. I will update it as the weeks pass. At the end I will also include an analysis of significant matchups but not enough games have been played for that yet.

And thanks you to anyone who reported their matches with just the individual points played per game next to each game instead of running tallies or post game sum-ups; that makes this much easier!

Character Analysis

Points won/lost

:chibiargagarg: 10/10.5
Rating: .95
Picked precisely once week 4. He lost.

:chibibbb: 32.5/13.5
Rating: 2.41
BBB’s rating takes a slight hit this week but still appears to be a solid pick. A character that can always be a threat, I’d be surprised if he didn’t end up high placement at the end. In fact, he currently reigns at the top of the ratings.

:chibidegrey: 69/56
Rating: 1.23
A very slight downward trend this week, but not enough to keep him from still appearing to be a good choice for the format.

:chibigeiger: 5.5/10.5
Rating: .52
Not selected at all week 3 or 4. Geiger taking a long long snooze.

:chibigloria: 58/49
Rating: 1.18
Gloria still climbing at a slow steady rate.

:chibigrave: 59/47
Rating: 1.26
Grave played a lot this week, rating barely changes at all.

:chibigwen: 28.5/44.5
Rating: .64
Still sitting in the dumpster, Gwen gains some ground this week, though not nearly enough to take her out of arrears.

:chibijaina: 91.5/72
Rating: 1.27
Even after taking a hit this week Jaina still sits on a positive point return.

:chibilum: 33/39.5
Rating: .83
I said expect to see him continue to rise. Well keep that under your hat for this week.

:chibimenelker: 101.5/72
Rating: 1.41
Menelker once again sees a huge amount of usage, and keeps on the up-and-up. People coming to the conclusion that a below average character who can kill you in one hit is good for this format.

:chibimidori: 102/74.5
Rating: 1.37
Midori holding strong for the week.

:chibionimaru: 31/33.5
Rating: .93
Still maintaining the lowest average points/game win or lose of any character, and still maintaining near even rating.

:chibipersephone: 106/125
Rating: .85
Persephone makes almost no move this week. When you’re sitting negative that’s not a good sign.

:chibiquince: 89.5/69.5
Rating: 1.29
Quince gets a huge boon this week, putting him in a good position. Flips from losing to winning in commanding fashion.

:chibirook: 37/72
Rating: .51
The crummy get crummier.

:chibisetsuki: 40.5/116.5
Rating: .35
Setsuki, while gaining a miniscule amount of ground this week, firmly remains the worst of all characters in this format, yet STILL gets decent usage. Some friendly advice: If you feel like picking Setsuki, just pick Jaina instead! Or Geiger! Poor guy is lonely.

:chibitroq: 20/14
Rating: 1.43
Troq doing fine. Troq happy to rest while little people get played. Troq eat grass and watch. Troq not get played this week.

:chibivalerie: 33.5/60.5
Rating: .55
Valerie spiraling ever further into the spot where she belongs, with her only notable application being to milk Quince points.

:chibivendetta: 52.5/25
Rating: 2.1
Ven gets used precisely twice. Breaks even. Remains godlike.

:chibizane: 30.5/30.5
Rating: 1
Zane achieves a perfect balance this week. He’d hate that.

This is my analysis so far. Keep fighting!


#208

hamvvar v Hobusu

:midori::psfist::pschip::degrey: 5 POINTS
:midori::pschip::psfist::degrey: 5 POINTS
:jaina::psfist::pschip::degrey: 6 POINTS
:jaina::pschip::psfist::degrey: 4 POINTS
:rook::psfist::pschip::degrey: 5.5 POINTS

hamvvar: 16.5 POINTS
Hobusu: 9 POINTS

ggs!


#209

vengefulpickle vs @Fusxfaranto

:persephone: > :rook: (4.5)
:persephone: < :rook: (5.5)
:vendetta: > :rook: (5)
:vendetta: > :jaina: (4)
:vendetta: > :menelker: (5)

18.5 - 5.5

Really good, really tense games! Any one of them could have gone the other way.


#210

Three Headed Monkey vs @mysticjuicer

:degrey: :psfist::pschip: :menelker: (4.0)
:degrey: :psfist::pschip: :menelker: (4.0)
:degrey: :pschip::psfist: :menelker: (6.0)
:grave: :pschip::psfist: :menelker: (5.0)
:grave: :psfist::pschip: :menelker: (5.0)

THM: 13
MJ: 11

@mysticjuicer go over my scores just to make sure I read the chart right :slight_smile:

Thanks for the set! It was really good fun and very tense and the way through. This format really is giving me matchups I’d never really played much of before. Good stuff!

EDIT Scores corrected


#211

You’ve got the DeGrey vs Menelker scores backwards. :slight_smile:


#212

whoops. Scores have been corrected


#213

Southpaw Hare vs @Castanietzsche

:gloria: :psfist::pschip: :quince: = 4.0
:gloria: :psfist::pschip: :quince: = 4.0
:gloria: :pschip::psfist: :quince: = 6.0
:vendetta: :psfist::pschip: :quince: = 5.5
:vendetta: :pschip::psfist: :gwen: = 5.0

Southpaw Hare 13.5 - 11 Castanietzsche
Southpaw Hare wins!


#214

gutterowl vs @CKR

:persephone::knockdown::psfist::onimaru: x5

ow my butt

there’s an entire sword in my butt

0 - 22.5


#215

CKR over @GutterOwl

(5x) :onimaru:>:persephone:

Final Score - CKR 22.5 - GutterOwl 0

ggs.

Edit: Sorry, duplicate post. GutterOwl types much faster than I do.


#216

Leontes wins vs @thehug0naut 15-10

:menelker::psfist::knockdown::grave: (whoops DSD)
:menelker::psfist::knockdown::grave: (went with bQ/bK gameplan and edged it out)
:menelker::knockdown::psfist::grave: (rekt 84-0 with only landed combo joker’d)
:menelker::psfist::knockdown::grave: (:persephone: mode activated)
:menelker::knockdown::psfist::grave: (ahhh should have mashed bQ more, very close)

Fun set! I like that matchup a lot. Way too many bQ/Q clashes for my taste and my Bonecracker RARELY hit. Very well played!


#217

flagrantangles wins 4-1 vs @UTRALAW
:quince::psfist::pschip::menelker: 5.5 for me
:quince::psfist::pschip::menelker: 5.5 for me
:quince::psfist::pschip::valerie: 4.5 for me
:quince::pschip::psfist::onimaru: 6 for UTRALAW
:quince::psfist::pschip::onimaru: 4 for me

I manage to eke out 19.5 points this round while UTRALAW comes away with 6. I’m getting a lot of practice in the Quince/Val matchup these days.


#218

i kind of didn’t want to play val for that reason also been a while since i last used her (summer slam i think?)

Anyway GGS Flaggy you are now officially my worst matchup in terms of players


#219

@mastrblastr beat @Niijima-san 4-1
:degrey: < :vendetta: 0-5 got destroyed and hit by T2 raw AAA
:gwen: > :vendetta: 5-5 extremely close game, was KD and 1 hit from death, wakeup 9 throw combo exact lethal
:gwen: > :gloria: 9.5 - 5 GwenPerfect, had a great hand
:gwen: > :jaina: 13.5 - 5 crazy game, both had jokers that saved lethal, I was down to 1 while he was chillbaned K>Q
:gwen: > :jaina: 17.5 - 5 T1 dumped entire hand T1, then single DPd 3 straight turns, blocked 2x raw AAA game

MB 17.5 Niijima-san 5
Always great to play you friend.


#220

I am going to chime in with a few thoughts. I was listening to the Bill Simmons weekly podcast where Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal try to guess the gambling spreads for next week’s NFL lines. Every once in awhile, they will disagree with the Vegas spread. They will debate that it is either too high or too low. This is exactly what we are doing.

Of course, we all knew that arbitrage was the name of the game going into this tournament. I think that as a whole the community has tried to capture value on the higher end of the payoff spectrum. I have taken the opposite approach and tried to collect value on the lower end. So far, this is working, but I know how fleeting success can be in this game. I am only saying this to give other players confidence to go after lower payoff situations. I would argue that once the payoff goes below 4-6 the risk gets too high, though.

This arbitrage game makes the Yomi MU chart more robust. We have strong players playing MUs that they would rarely or never play. This helps bring better insight into the game as a whole.

As an aside, I was watching the @mastrblastr vs @Niijima-san match up and they both had something interesting to say about the format. mastrblastr stated that players should get a two point bonus for winning the set. This would add an appealing layer to the decision making process, so I agree with this. On the flipside, Niijima-san was disappointed that he had to play a fifth game (he had lost three of four) that was relatively meaningless to him. I think that a Bo5 with a two point bonus for the winner would be pretty good. I don’t know if this format will be run again, but there is some ideas to explore for the future.


#221

I also think this tournament provides interesting decisionnmaking when thinking about upping EV vs lowering variance based on how well you’re currently doing in the tournament, what your goal is for the tournament and what you think your skill level relative to the field is, and if that gets mitigated or hurt in various matchups by being the big favorite or the big underdog.