I just did a bunch more data analysis. My big takeaway is, there are lots more viable characters than just the Carousel. For instance, vs Zane, Troq is the top pick. But the other two grapplers are within a few percent at most win-states of the match, so if you play a better Midori than you do a Troq, you're probably better off throwing down w/ him. (And if you prefer the composite matchup chart, Onimaru and Grave are both defensible picks as well).
Likewise, there are a bunch of non-carousel characters that are within a percent or two of being top picks against Troq, Geiger, and DeGrey.