Casual: Keybounce (mono-white) vs Frozen Storm (past / blood / discipline)

Ohh, thank you for that, I’ll play with it.

My expectation of the chance that you would have played it last turn, if you had it: 100%. Conclusion: You did not draw it.

Since you had three cards in your draw pile when you drew the cards you are currently looking at, then if you had teched it, it must be in one of those three.

This is how I concluded that if you teched it, since you did not play it, 100%; and, it’s one of your best T1’s to tech at the start of T2.

Ahh – yes, I did not take into account that you might have teched it turn 3 instead of turn 2. Hmm …

Actually, you have discipline. You might have teched a twin. …
4g for kidnapping is probably too expensive this early. … but I just said you’d spend 4g on twins. And if you’re trying to afford your T2 building, a second 1g unit might make more sense …

Sorry for the delay; I managed to lose track of 2 cards and had to figure out what I deleted out of the spreadsheet by accident.

On that calculator: how do you use it? Lets say, for example a deck size of 6, drawing 2 cards, with 4 good cards in there, and you need 1.

When I tried population=6, successes=3, sample size=2, successes in sample = 1, I got Hypergeometric Probability = 0.6 (seems right). But if I go up to successes=4, the probability drops.

So what do I need to put in to get meaningful numbers out / how do I use that to test my chance of a given teching being a good teching?

P1T4


Tech StartingHand Workers

TECH
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)


STARTING HAND
Fox Primus (2/2; 3g; frenz, AA)
Sparring partner (2/2; 1g; gives +1/+1)
Sensei’s Advice
Safe Attacking (+1 arm)
Birds nest (Rook spell)


WORKERS
Snapback
Morningstar Flagbearer
Fox Viper (2/1; 2g; spark)
Safe Attacking (+1 arm T0/1; 1g)


NextHand

Rambassa twin (3/2 *2; 4g)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)
Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)
Grappling Hook (move patroller)


Tech 2 card(s)
Technician card draw before tech cards
Get Paid + float - ($8)
Worker - ($7)
Rook (L1 2/4; 4g to L5) - ($5)
Birds nest (Rook spell 2g) - ($3)
Sensei’s Advice (2 units +1/+1; 1g) - ($2)
Sets (1/3; 1g to attack in back; 3g to L4) - ($0)
Monk (2/2 + 1/1 advice) attacks crashbarrow, killing it with 1 damage
Base takes 1dmg from barrow

Float ($0)
Discard 2, draw 3, reshuffle, draw 1


[B]Board Info:[/B]
[B]In Patrol:[/B]

  • :psblueshield: [I]Squad Leader[/I]: bird 1 (1/1 flying token)
  • :psfist: [I]Elite[/I]: Rook (L1 2/4; 4g to L5)
  • :ps_: [I]Scavenger[/I]: bird 2 (1/1 flying token)
  • :pschip: [I]Technician[/I]: Smoker (1/1; 1g)
  • :target: [I]Lookout[/I]:
    [B]In Play:[/B]
  • Savior Monk (2/2-1; 2g; heal 1)
  • Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)
  • Sets (1/3; 1g to attack in back; 3g to L4)
    [B]Buildings:[/B]
  • :heart: Base HP: 19
  • :heart: Tech I HP: 5
  • :heart: Heroes’ Hall HP: 4

[B]Economy Info:[/B]
[B]Cards:[/B]

  • Hand: 4
  • Deck: 5
  • Disc: 0
    [B]Gold:[/B]
  • Gold: 0
  • Workers: 8

I’ll add some screenshots here to clarify, but you’re basically using it right, just reading the (admittedly confusing) output incorrectly.

For your first example (drawing 2 of a 6 card deck, looking for 1 of 3 “good cards”):

The output here is saying:
60% chance you get exactly one of those 3 cards (X=1, from line 1)
20% chance you get none of those 3 (X < 1, line 2)
80% chance you get none or one of those 3 (X <= 1, line 3)
20% chance you get more than one of those cards (X > 1, line 4)
80% chance you get one or more (X >= 1, line 5)

And now for your second example (drawing 2 of a 6 card deck, looking for 1 of 4 “good cards”):

You’re now only 53% likely to get exactly one of those 4 cards, because you’re more likely to have gotten more than one of them (40% > 1). You’re 93% to have gotten one OR MORE, so your odds of getting at least one went up 13%

So usually, the number you care about is the last line, not the first one, as you’re usually concerned with getting at least one, not exactly one of a given set of cards. Make sense?

1 Like

Predictably here, I’m going to kill Rook :wink:

Game 1, Player 2, Turn 4

P1 White vs P2 [Past]/Blood/Discipline

[details=Starting Hand]
Stewardess of the Undone
Forgotten Fighter
Tinkerer
Seer
[/details]

##Events of Turn:

###Upkeep:

  • Get Gold (7+2float+1scavenger)
  • Tech 2 cards in (except turn 1)

[details=All Teched Cards]
Training Grounds x2
Stewardess of the Undone, Seer
Stewardess of the Undone, Crash Bomber
[/details]


###Main:

  • Stewardess of the Undone, bounces SQL bird into oblivion (since tokens can’t go to your hand) (5)
  • Mox and Nullcraft kill Rook, levels fizzle
  • Tech 2 Discipline (1)
  • Worker (0)

[details=Workers]
Forgotten Fighter, Neo Plexus, Plasmodium, Time Spiral
[/details]

  • :pspurpleshield: Patrol as below
  • Discard 2 Draw 4
  • Tech 2 cards before my next turn

###Board Info:
####Buildings:

  • :heart: Base HP: 20
  • Tech1 HP: 2
  • Tech2 HP: 5 DISCIPLINE

####In Patrol:

  • :psblueshield: Squad Leader: Stewardess of the Undone (2/3+1armor)
  • :psfist: Elite:
  • :pspig: Scavenger:
  • :exhaust: Technician:
  • :target: Lookout: Drakk (3/4 lvl 6)

####In Play:

  • Hardened Mox (1/1)
  • Nullcraft (1/1)

###Economy Info:

####Cards:

  • Hand: 4
  • Deck: 0
  • Disc: 5

####Gold:

  • Gold: 0
  • Workers: 9

[details=End of Turn Hand]
Fading Argonaut
Stewardess of the Undone
Battle Suits
Temporal Research
[/details]

[details=End of Turn Discard]
Crash Bomber
Training Grounds
Training Grounds
Seer
Tinkerer
[/details]

[details=My Thoughts]
Solid overall turn from him, I’d probably SQL Rook instead of Elite and patrol both birds in scav/tech, but bringing Sets out means I’m not inclined to attack further. I will tech up though, and put 2x Training Grounds down. Realistically I only need one, but they’re cheap and I can recover cards with TR. In fact next turn, I’ll probably go Prynn + TR in hopes of digging one up. Probably last tech Bloodlust and another Seer, maybe Origin Story.
[/details]

1 Like

Yea, Makes sense now that I know waht I’m looking for.

And I was right – stewardess undid some of whaat I did.
But with this play, just some.

Hmm, no more nest, but I still have one bird.
I don’t think I’ll get a chance to make a turn tonight, and tomorrow morning is busy.

EDIT: Discipline? … I really want to read those thoughts as to why.

If it was really predictable, I’d have put rook in +1 card.

Actually, I put him there thinking you’d send a hasted frenzy’d undone after him. If I had thought you’d do mox + nullcraft – which he can’t do a thing about – at him, I’d have played differently.

Yea, I know, hindsight … I figured the birds would intercept nullcraft.

Discipline. Why would you take Discipline? Would it possibly be for the flying pumpable tech killers?

My anti-air/fliers: Birds (well, they’re cheap, and you can’t fly through them). A fruit ninja in the starter deck (but it’s only three offense on attack). A spell that can disable a unit or hero with flying. A monk that can wrestle anyone for 4 points of first-strike (call him “Steve”). Oh, and a 3 strength flying ninja.

So I have a choice of dragons, flying ninja, or a wrestler. And you’ve got a haste hero. How can I get through your line to that hero? Where did I put that invisibility spray?

Snapback is the anti-hero answer you’re looking for. That’s why I’m patrolling in Lookout :wink:

As for why Discipline? hasty YLDs are a good choice, yes, but there are 4 other cards in Discipline Tech 2. All but focus master are pretty reasonable choices for my deck

Lookout, yes. The “did you have one extra gold?” spot. In a game where 1 gold is the difference between a decent play and a really good play.

Notice that last turn I didn’t use it, had no gold left, and kinda barely held on?


So, am I doing significantly better this turn, and do you think I have already lost?

Assume that I knew I would be planning on a t2 building this turn. Assume that I teched two t2 cards last turn, so I have 0-1 useless in my hand, and 0-2 in my deck for next turn. Assume that I expected you to go past, and that my spells / t2 cards / expected tech building were to deal with a rememberer-based past strategy.

How much trouble do you think I am in?

The board is in my favor through 4 turns, but I don’t really think the game is over.

Mox + Nullcraft + Drakk isn’t easy to deal with for White, and combined with Stewardess I do make quick work of the best counter in Bird’s Nest.

I think with Ninja Tech 2 and Max Sets / Rook, you still have tools (remember that I have to tech Origin Story, and then draw it to line up with impactful hero plays while having access to Prynn), but it’s a bit of a tough matchup.

I would expect that in the current board state I am favored to win, but that largely depends on what tech 2 and spells you took. Reversal, Glorious Ninja and Fox’s Den School? You’re in good shape. Strength dudes like Doubling Barb and Sparring Partner? Ok but not great. YLDs of your own? Not sure that’s the best when I can bring hasty fliers from all my tech 2 choices.

The main thing you have to worry about with your own tech 2 units is my Prynn maxband. That’s why Ninjas + School is a great bet, if they’re invisible then they’re untargetable.

Prynn’s maxband? … I just double checked. Yes, you bound my units, but they come back. Sans any +1/+1’s / etc. How does using that against me help you, other than removing a unit (one) for one turn?

I definitely have not played well against mox/nullcraft. I should have at least kept the units you wanted to remove in +1 card, because cards has been my shortfall more than anything. Last turn was really my first gold shortage, and this turn is another “1 gold short”.

Oh, and what did I tech in? Probably two new workers :slight_smile:

EDIT 2: The best benefit of Ninjas that I see is that I can counter your 3gold dragons with 2 gold flying ninjas. Most of the rest of the benefit of ninja vs discipline can be obtained by max Sets.

So what did I miss? (goes to take another look)

Lets see.

Discipline has “level hero to max” and dragons. Focus master for defense, Vigor adept for attack, and both dragons and focus are cost 3 for storms.

Strength has grappler (takes your units out as well as a first strike attacker), and it’s also cost 3. Colossus puts the game on a 3 turn timer if I can get a +1/+1 on it or use birds for help. Maxband rook can quake, but maxbanding him without discipline’s aid is expensive.

Ninjutsu has porcupine and flying ninja. Hidden Ninja + glorious Ninja is a wonderful combo. It’s the cheapest way to counter you (6 hp of death touch can take out two of your units before dying, as long as I can keep fliers off it – but I need the flying ninja for that.)

EDIT: What I really want is Ninjas and that “max your hero” building. Grr.

… and I’m looking for a card that I teched in LAST game, not this game. augh.

Move coming soon.

Inspiration for this move: the last three panels here: Erfworld Archives - The Battle for Gobwin Knob - Episode 052

P1T5


Tech StartingHand Workers

TECH
Entangling vines (3g; rook spell)
Training grounds (1g; tap>max hero)


STARTING HAND
Rambassa twin (3/2 *2; 4g)
Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)
Grappling Hook (move patroller)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)


WORKERS
Snapback
Morningstar Flagbearer
Fox Viper (2/1; 2g; spark)
Safe Attacking (+1 arm T0/1; 1g)
Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)


NextHand

Sensei’s Advice (2 units +1/+1; 1g)
Fox Primus (2/2; 3g; frenz, AA)
Sparring partner (2/2; 1g; gives +1/+1)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)


Discard

Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)
Smoker (1/1; 1g)
Grappling Hook (move patroller)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)
Rambassa twin (3/2 *2; 4g)
Entangling vines (3g; rook spell)
Training grounds (1g; tap>max hero)


Tech 2 card(s)
Upkeep:
Savior monk heals
Get Paid - ($8)
Worker - ($7)
Midband Sets - ($4)
Tech 2 - Discipline - ($0)
Hook (move undone to elite)
Bird dings draak
Smoker attacks draak, dies
Sets attacks draak; swift strike; kills drak, goes to L6 and heals
Sets huffs and puffs, but is OK.
Base takes one damage from Draak’s death (19 down to 18)

Float ($0)
Discard 2, draw 4


Board Info:
In Patrol:

  • :psblueshield: Squad Leader: Savior Monk (2/2; 2g; heal 1)
  • :psfist: Elite:
  • :ps_: Scavenger:
  • :pschip: Technician:
  • :target: Lookout:
    In Play:
  • bird 2 (1/1 flying token)
  • Sets (L6; 3/4; 1g to attack in back; +2 cards)
    Buildings:
  • :heart: Base HP: 18
  • :heart: Tech I HP: 5
  • :heart: Tech 2 Discipline HP: 5
  • :heart: Heroes’ Hall HP: 4

Economy Info:
Cards:

  • Hand: 4
  • Deck: 1
  • Disc: 7
    Gold:
  • Gold: 0
  • Workers: 9
Thoughts

Well, I managed to get rid of Draak. And get Setsuki to max. If she survives, I’ll start recovering two cards a turn.

I don’t expect her to survive more than 1 turn. That’s OK, I’m bring in spells for Rook. The current plan is to get a two-life rook in SQL to hold off your creatures, with a dragon in there for your fliers.

What’s next? Right now I’m looking at Max Sets + Max Grave, deck cylcing, for Storms. My units only have to delay you; two storms and you’re done.

I don’t think I get the last three panels there & how they relate (probably doesn’t help that I’m totally unfamiliar with that comic): is it that by losing Drakk, I’m “winning” (via his dies trigger)?

I tell you one thing: I completely forgot about Grappling Hook making him vulnerable lol. I should have put him behind the line, misplay on my part

Game 1, Player 2, Turn 5

P1 White vs P2 [Past]/Blood/Discipline

[details=Starting Hand]
Fading Argonaut
Stewardess of the Undone
Battle Suits
Temporal Research
[/details]

##Events of Turn:

###Upkeep:

  • Get Gold (9)
  • Tech 2 cards in (except turn 1)

[details=All Teched Cards]
Origin Story, Seer
Training Grounds x2
Stewardess of the Undone, Seer
Stewardess of the Undone, Crash Bomber
[/details]


###Main:

  • Prynn (7)
  • New Stewardess of the Undone, bounces Savior Monk to your hand (4)
  • Battle Suits (2)
  • Existing Stewardess and Nullcraft each pay the backline toll to kill Setsuki, Prynn to level 3 (0)
  • Mox smacks your tech 2 to 3hp
  • Skip Worker

[details=Workers]
Forgotten Fighter, Neo Plexus, Plasmodium, Time Spiral
[/details]

  • :pspurpleshield: Patrol as below
  • Discard 2 rs Draw 4
  • Tech 2 cards before my next turn

###Board Info:
####Buildings:

  • :heart: Base HP: 20
  • Tech1 HP: 2
  • Tech2 HP: 5 DISCIPLINE

####In Patrol:

  • :psblueshield: Squad Leader: Stewardess of the Undone (3/3+1armor)
  • :psfist: Elite:
  • :pspig: Scavenger:
  • :exhaust: Technician:
  • :target: Lookout: Prynn (1/3 lvl 3)

####In Play:

  • Battle Suits
  • Hardened Mox (2/1)
  • Nullcraft (1/1)

###Economy Info:

####Cards:

  • Hand: 4
  • Deck: 6
  • Disc: 0

####Gold:

  • Gold: 0
  • Workers: 9

[details=End of Turn Hand]
Crash Bomber
Fading Argonaut
Seer
Training Grounds
[/details]

[details=End of Turn Discard][spoiler]

[/spoiler][/details]

[details=My Thoughts]
I did a whoopsie losing Drakk there, but oh well, it’s plenty recoverable. As much as I wanted to re-roll the deck here, not laying Battle Suits and killing Sets is enough of a danger that it isn’t worth getting a Training Grounds a turn early. That and free levels on Prynn means almost certainly I can get a tech lockdown next turn. He’d need to midband Grave AND bring Rook out to have a good shot at defending, and even then, Origin Story can make that a losing proposition.
[/details]

Naah, the comic at that point had a horrendous underdog do surgical strikes to hit just the incoming siege towers, and retreat. Lost a significant number of units, failed to level up any leaders, but bought himself time.

He “lost” a bunch of combats, while getting rid of critical units.

I “lost” two strikes on draak (and one unit to the discard), before getting rid of him.

Now, lets see what you did.

EDIT: Two of them!?

… And Sets did not even last one turn of +2 cards? Sure, I did not expect her to last two turns, but I did expect her to last one.

2 Likes

Hmm. Public note: Each of your heroes has a spell that can deal with my dragon. At first I was worried about Shimmer Ray (a 1g counter to it), but that’s not the tech you used.

I do have things that can deal with your spells; will I draw any of them?

P1T6


Tech StartingHand Workers

TECH
Mind Parry Monk (5/4; No targetting; 5g)
Mind Parry Monk (5/4; No targetting; 5g)


STARTING HAND
Fox Primus (2/2; 3g; frenz, AA)
Sensei’s Advice (2 units +1/+1; 1g)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)
Sparring partner (2/2; 1g; gives +1/+1)


WORKERS
Snapback
Morningstar Flagbearer
Fox Viper (2/1; 2g; spark)
Safe Attacking (+1 arm T0/1; 1g)
Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)
Savior Monk (2/2; 2g; heal 1)


NextHand

Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)
Aged Sensei (1/1; 1g)
Training grounds (1g; tap>max hero)
Birds nest (Rook spell 2g)


Tech 2 card(s)
Get Paid - ($9)
Worker - ($8)
Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g) - ($5)
Rook (L1 2/4; 4g to L5) - ($3)
Grave (L1; 2/3; spark; 2g to L3) - ($1)
Sparring partner (2/2; 1g; gives +1/+1) - ($0)

Float ($0)
Discard 2, draw 1, reshuffle, draw 3


[B]Board Info:[/B]
[B]In Patrol:[/B]

  • :psblueshield: [I]Squad Leader[/I]: Grave (L1; 2/3; spark; 2g to L3)
  • :psfist: [I]Elite[/I]:
  • :ps_: [I]Scavenger[/I]: Sparring partner (2/2; 1g; gives +1/+1)
  • :pschip: [I]Technician[/I]: Rook (L1 2/4; 4g to L5)
  • :target: [I]Lookout[/I]: bird 2 (1/1 flying token)
    [B]In Play:[/B]
  • Young Lightning Dragon (3/3; pump 3; 3g)
    [B]Buildings:[/B]
  • :heart: Base HP: 18
  • :heart: Tech I HP: 5
  • :heart: Tech II HP: 3 (Discipline)
  • :heart: Heroes’ Hall HP: 4

[B]Economy Info:[/B]
[B]Cards:[/B]

  • Hand: 4
  • Deck: 8
  • Disc: 0
    [B]Gold:[/B]
  • Gold: 0
  • Workers: 10
Thoughts

This … is not clearly my best move.

The teching, mind parry monk, are to stop all your targetting shenanigans.

You have enough attack to take out all my heroes and max Pyrnn. Fine. You can take out the dragon for a turn.

Kidnapping is the biggest threat to the dragons. The monks will block that.

Soon I will be making max heroes for 2g. The next to tech in? Quake? Max sets? Mastery for the cycling?

Set’s maxband is really “Play 3 units a turn”. That’s a very powerful ability. More than “Get that ultimte spell”, it’s “get lots of units”. Ninja here is the “flood lots of units” form.

I’m really not sure if the sparring partner is worth bringing out or not. I do want that extra draw. But it gives a target other than rook – i.e., it gives you the chance to make a mistake and not hit rook.

In fact, that’s really what it’s about. Lets make it that much harder to hit rook. Now that looks like a much better play.

Do I even want rook out this turn? Two of my “winning” moves involve using rook next turn, either for spell or for … actually, that training building won’t max him the first furn. Faaa … significantly lowers the chance of this working.

No, I need rook. Otherwise, the play is: Pyrnn and Mox take out grave. Max pyrnn, remove sparring partner. Stewardess takes out the T2 building – and I can’t play any of my answers.

Game 1, Player 2, Turn 6

P1 White vs P2 [Past]/Blood/Discipline

[details=Starting Hand]
Crash Bomber
Fading Argonaut
Seer
Training Grounds
[/details]

##Events of Turn:

###Upkeep:

  • Get Gold (9)
  • Tech 2 cards in (except turn 1)

[details=All Teched Cards]
Kidnapping, Mind-Parry Monk
Origin Story, Seer
Training Grounds x2
Stewardess of the Undone, Seer
Stewardess of the Undone, Crash Bomber
[/details]


###Main:

  • Grave(7)
  • Training Grounds (6)
  • Stewardess and mox kill Grave, Prynn to level 5
  • Prynn and Nullcraft kill Rook, Prynn maxbands, you get a card
  • Prynn uses her maxband to trash Young Lightning Dragon, goes down to 2 fading runes
  • Seer, Prynn to 3 fading runes (5)
  • Hero’s Hall (3)
  • Fading Argonaut (1)

[details=Workers]
Forgotten Fighter, Neo Plexus, Plasmodium, Time Spiral
[/details]

  • :pspurpleshield: Patrol as below
  • Discard 1 Draw 3
  • Tech 2 cards before my next turn

###Board Info:
####Buildings:

  • :heart: Base HP: 20
  • Tech1 HP: 2
  • Tech2 HP: 5 DISCIPLINE
  • Hero’s Hall HP: 4

####In Patrol:

  • :psblueshield: Squad Leader: Seer (3/1+1armor)
  • :psfist: Elite:
  • :pspig: Scavenger:
  • :exhaust: Technician: Fading Argonaut (3/3 fade 3)
  • :target: Lookout:

####In Play:

  • Battle Suits
  • Prynn (4/5 lvl 7 fade 3 holding YLD hostage)
  • Grave (3/3 lvl 1)
  • Stewardess of the Undone (3/1 from 2 damage)
  • Hardened Mox (2/1)
  • Nullcraft (1/1)
  • Training Grounds (4hp)

###Economy Info:

####Cards:

  • Hand: 3
  • Deck: 3
  • Disc: 3

####Gold:

  • Gold: 1
  • Workers: 9

[details=End of Turn Hand]
Origin Story
Tinkerer
Stewardess of the Undone
[/details]

[details=End of Turn Discard]
Mind-Parry Monk
Kidnapping
Crash Bomber
[/details]

[details=My Thoughts]
Big hero kills here, free levels, getting a total stranglehold on the game. He may snap Prynn out but bringing Drakk in isn’t exactly better for him. The only big concern here is I am leaving Sparring Partner up to buff the bird. Combine that with Fortune cookie and I could get “double hero killed”. That’d really suck, but I’d survive it. Plus I have so much to attack with next turn…
[/details]

I really hate to say this, but isn’t seer only cost 1, not 2?

EDIT: AARRGGG. Why did I not put YLD in lookout? I knew it was going to be exiled, I could at least have made you pay for it.

I was only expecting a single-turn of exile. Hmm.

Prynn started with 4. On your upkeep, 3. Use maxband, 1. Seer, 2. Seer was not expected.

1 Like