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A Balanced Clash: 1st of it's Name - In Progress!


got the bug, played my first games in forever vs MR and Fivec, I want in!


Let’s do this, in!


Assuming @Niijima-san is actually in, we’re only one person away from a perfect 16!


So, I played the ABC counterpick rules with @TokH last night, and it went pretty well. One thing I noticed, though, is that it isn’t always the case, under the current rules, that you can stick in a MU you lost. That seems wrong, so I’m adding that as an explicit option. Apparently, I already thought that through, and included that case explicitly. Go me?

Also, @ThreeHeadedMonkey, @TokH, either of you want in on this tournament?


Yeah if it won’t put it over 16 I’ll give it a try.


After a PM discussion with @vengefulpickle, I’ll be joining with a 1 week extension on my first game because I won’t have access to my PC for about a week. Worst-case scenario, if something unexpected happens and I can’t join it’ll effectively be a 15-person tourney with my first opponent getting a bye.


And with that, we’re at 16. I’m going to soft-close signups, at this point, unless we get an unexpectedly large number in the next two days, and post a tentative bracket.


I’ve been dedicating most of my free time to L5R and I’ve already signed up for IYL, I don’t know if I can manage another tournament in the same time frame. I’m interested to see how this format, turns out, though! Someone (@mysticjuicer ?) record some matches so I can watch!


Ok, the bracket is posted, match invites will go out tomorrow night. Good luck, everyone!


you didn’t sign me up…:cry:


Oh no! I’ll fix that post-haste.

EDIT: Done!


Many thanks!!!



I have Caralad in Round 1?

Here’s to another exciting journey through the losers’s bracket… :joy:


I completely forgot to laugh incredulously when I saw that two of Quince’s most balanced matchups are against Valerie and Setsuki.


My analysis of historical matches has them Quince-Val at 5.2-4.8, and Quince-Sets at 4.9-5.1.

What’s the community consensus/your experience, @flagrantangles?

EDIT: In general, I’m curious about what experienced folks think about the “most balanced matchups” list in this format. I’m not going to change the lists, but I’d love to know what jumps out as surprising, because it might point to a flaw in my data analysis.


Valerie is regularly understood to be a counter to Quince and I would agree, though I would argue that she’s a firm counter rather than a hard one. Valerie laughs in the face of Quince’s K-Spin and that makes things difficult. J-Spin is safe, but it doesn’t lead to as much unless you decide to be very risky and throw. That said, Valerie often needs a little bit of time to set up and build a hand so that she can take Quince down. What’s especially hurtful is that Val’s A’s are, relatively speaking, cheap for her to come by AND they undercut everything Quince has. From the Quince side, you have to condense a brutal nature into a surgical strike. Swinging wildly will win Valerie the game.

The more I’ve played this, the more my opinions on this have changed. I’m less clear on what the community consensus of this MU is. I used to think it was fine for Quince because K-Spin can really wreck Setsuki’s day, depending on her hand. And while that’s still true, that doesn’t ameliorate her one shining advantage: winning combat. Quince, as one of the slowest characters, is NOT GOOD at winning combat. These two facts paired together make this a difficult matchup. Furthermore, Setsuki’s vortex allows her to find jokers pretty reliably and that combined with her excellent combat options, often means that Quince’s vortex barely ever sputters to life before he expires. And to thoroughly salt the wound, Setsuki has a counter to deny Quince 2 Truths and empower her own vortex. All that said, a thoughtless Setsuki is going to run into trouble because Quince’s vortex is powerful enough to compensate for his generally shitty combat options. If Quince gets on a roll here, he can ride it to victory. Setsuki, however, is very good at preventing the engine from starting and also knows just where the throw all of the wrenches.


(looks at bracket)

RIP me


:troq: : I’m a bit surprised at Argagarg showing up in the list - I think of that as a very good MU for Troq. Vendetta probably shows up because @Niijima-san rules that MU, and then most other Ven’s lose it. Same thing with Leontes for Midori, and Dietz for Lum.

:midori: : Looks really good, imo.

:rook: : A bit surprised that Valerie shows up there, I think that’s a very good MU for him. A bit surprised that Geiger shows up there, I think that’s pretty bad for Rook. But low play rates mean I’m not surprised to see them there.

:bbb: : I think it’s funny that Troq and Midori both show up in BBB’s top 6 even MUs, given that he’s meant to give grapplers a really hard time. I think that probably speaks to how bad his numbers look over all, though I don’t think they make sense from a pure-theory perspective.


I am pretty good at Ven vs. Troq, but without my numbers it is actually closer to even. Ven is 4 up with my numbers, without me Troq would be 1 up, so almost precisely 50/50.

P.S. I am 13-8 in that mu, so even though Ven is my Troq cp it still isn’t that spectacular. It helps that it’s legit near impossible to be hit by Beast Unleashed.


Arthur Wynne vs Caralad

:persephone: :knockdown: :psfist: :rook: I chose to start with a pick that I thought would deny Caralad his most fearsome characters, but he had the reads and beat me pretty convincingly anyway. Not an auspicious start.

:persephone: :psfist: :knockdown: :rook: There’s nothing wrong with the match-up, though, so with better draws (more 10s*) and less dodging (what was I thinking?) I think I can do well staying in. And my persistence is rewarded!

:rook: :psfist: :knockdown: :gwen: Role reversal! I know Rook is very susceptible to death by a thousand cuts in this MU, so I go in very aggressive, with lots of throws and big normals, and it pays off! In the mid-game i can back off a bit and bring it home off my big early life lead.

:rook: :psfist: :knockdown: :valerie: I drew really really well this game.

:rook: :psfist: :knockdown: :troq: Caralad was absolutely manhandling me in the early game, but special blocks, recurring AA and clutch draws (including a joker that let me disrespect dodges) brought back an extremely tense comeback to 4 hp vs 6 in the final turn, and Wall of Vines is a smidge faster in the clash of AAs!

Final result: 4-1 to ArthurWynne

GGs Caralad, a very exciting set!